Politics has always been a game that the elites play ostensibly on behalf of the rest of us. As in all games, there are rules and methodologies that players rely upon. Nigerian politics is replete with written as well as unwritten rules about how the game is to be played. Terms like “rotational presidency”, “power shift” and “zoning” are examples of such rules that, though unwritten and thus extra-constitutional, feature routinely in the lexicon of Nigerian politicians. These terms, which are more implicit than explicit in nature, have been bandied about for so long that the mass media and the society at large have come to identify with them as the key operational pillars of the nation’s political economy.
For a multi-ethnic polity like Nigeria , one can easily see the necessity for devising peculiar stratagems to ensure that the basic tenets of democracy, to which the country is committed in principle, are approximated in actual practice.
In the halcyon days of the First Republic when semi-autonomous regions in the North, East and West had optimal control of their respective domains, national political equation was balanced by joggling the perceived interests of Nigeria ’s major ethnopolitical groups, Hausa/Fulani, Igbo and Yoruba.
With the present 36-state structure, the nation’s political power clearly resides at the center rather than the periphery. Competition for control and access to the center now dictates trends in Nigerian politics to a level that was unconscionable in the immediate post-Independence era.
As much as some would like to downplay its significance, it is widely believed that Obasanjo’s presidential ambition in the run-up to the 1999 general elections was facilitated by widespread perception that there was an urgent need for a power shift in national leadership at the center.
The political calculations that resulted in making Obasanjo the choice candidate of the ruling party was underscored by the wish of the Northern political elite to make the power shift to the South as brief as possible. Some saw the need to placate the West for the June 12 mishap since one of theirs was denied the right to nation’s leadership after supposedly winning a free and fair presidential electoral contest during the Babangida transition program. Since it was overdue for someone from the South to assume control at the Aso Rock, the Northern political strategists sought to kill two birds with one stone.
Obasanjo’s presidential candidacy was seen as the best means to placate the West and accomplish a power shift at the same time. Before then, the clear frontrunner for the PDP presidential ticket was the former Vice-President, Dr. Alex Ekwueme. If he had been allowed to proceed to win the 1999 general elections, the power shift to the South would have been achieved but the ire of the West might not have been assuaged. Ekwueme’s political ambition was essentially sacrificed at the alter of political expediency by those who would like to eliminate any compelling reasons for the presidency to remain in the South even a day longer than is absolutely necessary.
The pitch for an Igbo to assume Nigeria ’s presidency in 2019 is a potent tool in the hands of politicians and presidential aspirants from the Southeast zone. Whether this will be utilitarian in accomplishing the objective of enabling an Igbo to become Nigeria ’s president in 2019 is uncertain at best. Intrinsically, an Igbo presidency should be a no-brainer because the average Igbo is as good as his average compatriot on matters that pertain to nation building as well as leadership in all aspects of human endeavor. It is obviously not the dearth of talents that has kept Ndigbo from providing leadership at the center since end of the Civil War.
Dr. Ekwueme had twice come very close to becoming the Nigerian president but his ambition was scuttled on both occasions. The zoning formula adopted by the NPN in the Second Republic was botched by the second coming of military rule headed by the present allegedly now reformed democrat president Buhari, while his bid to secure the PDP ticket for 1999 general election cycle was smothered and extinguished at the Jos convention by those who masterminded Obasanjo’s candidacy.
Ndigbo have the right to assert that one of their own should be elected as Nigeria’s president in 2019. But statement of such a fact should be seen as only the beginning of a long road that could lead any Igbo presidential candidate to the seat of power at the Aso Rock. Two things are necessary to assure success for the prospects of Igbo presidency in 2019.
Firstly, residents of the Southeast must be made to buy into this concept because their solid support should provide the launching pad for such a major project.
Secondly, the case for Igbo presidency should be projected and sold to a nationwide audience via social media and mass media as a prelude for building the necessary coalition for the would-be presidential candidate of Southeast origin.
The uphill task of achieving unanimity of purpose amongst political groups of the Southeast must never be underestimated by anyone.
Some influential Igbo leaders have openly expressed their reservations or outright opposition to a concerted push for Igbo presidency project in the 2019 election cycle for a variety of self serving and selfish reasons.
But even if Ndigbo were to come to an agreement soon to rally behind a unifying candidate for the 2019 presidential bid, the eventual outcome of this whole endeavor will surely hinge on how other interest groups in Nigeria welcome and cooperate in actualizing this idea.
The political fate of the Southeast and South south are intricately intertwined to the extent that some pundits often fail to appreciate. Even though Ndiigbo constitute the majority group within the political block that comprises the Southeast and Southsouth zones, acquiescence and support of the minority interest groups of the area is key to the success of a potential Igbo presidential candidate’s nomination and eventual election in 2019.
Suffice it to say that at present there is no debate on who’s turn it is after the successful tenure of HE President Goodluck Jonathan, to present the unifying candidate for the upcoming general elections.
For the bid of an Igbo presidency to succeed, the rickety bridge that links the strategic interests of Ndigbo and those of the many minority groups that comprise the Southsouth must be mended or at least, shored up in the interim. The minority groups of the Niger Delta and former East constitute the political Achilles heel of Ndigbo which must be secured prior to any major engagement elsewhere on the national stage.
The task of selling the Igbo presidency on the national arena will likely entail a replay of the tripartite political jigsaw puzzle that has characterized the politics of yester years.
Ndiigbo must be wary of the fact that any attempt to delay a shot at an Igbo presidency beyond 2019 can seriously destabilize Alaigbo thereby making things worse than they are at present. The average Igbo is ill-disposed to acquiescing to dictation from his fellow citizens irrespective of the import of the issue at stake. The best way to get the average Igbo to go along and tow a preset line is to deploy patient persuasion and discourse backed up with superior argument.
Notwithstanding, there is palpable cynicism and distrust for the average politician across Nigeria, Alaigbo included. The decision to pursue the Igbo presidency project for 2019 is basically a brainchild of a few Igbo social media elite as a result of findings from broad discussion across board and the unjust and unfair disposition of the rest of nigeria to the clear marginalisation of Ndigbo.
Though, in theory, a Nigerian president of Igbo background would augur well for Ndigbo, the experience so far is that Igbo political elite have not performed creditably well enough in recent times to earn the unalloyed loyalty and confidence of those whose interests they claim to represent for obvious reasons.
Nigerian democracy is seriously threatened by the emergence of supra-partisan parochial groups which attempt to steer the nation in disparate ways for the purpose of actualizing perceived special interests of many ethnocultural groups that make up the country.
The bid for an Igbo to become the next Nigerian president is spearheaded by few Igbo elite and even though this entity has no control of any of the registered political parties, the demand for a Nigerian president of Igbo origin is valid.
In like manner, any of the hundreds of ethnocultural groups in the country should also have the right to make their demands on fellow compatriots as long as everyone understands beforehand that all political ambitions must be pursued within the framework of the nation’s constitution.
As compelling as the case for an Igbo presidency appears at the moment, no one should presume that such a goal is a fait accompli just for the asking. Igbo political leaders must first demonstrate that they have a unity of purpose and the dexterity with which to maneuver successfully through the political maze of a multinational polity like Nigeria . Can this be done soon enough to be able to meet the deadline of the next presidential elections? Besides, who do we have in our stable of leading credible politicians that we Ndigbo, can all unconditionally rally around to support?.
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