Each state of the Nigerian federation is unique in its politics. However, some are absurdly unique. Imo State falls within this last category. The last time Imo has been actually lead by leaders in all sense of the word remains 1979 to 1983. Since then, all manners of men and women interested in nothing but heist have taken the centre stage since 1999.
From 1999 till date i.e. about 216 months, Imo has received over =N=1 trillion. One wonders where these colossal resources have entered – this same Imo or another entity? The double jeopardy has been the fact that nobody has ever been taken to task for the use and misuse of this commonwealth. Even during the years eaten by the locusts, i.e. the military era, most western Nigerian states took their former military rulers to task and some were forced to regurgitate what they swallowed. But in Imo, then and now, mum is the word.
That this political and economic rape has happened to a people who pride themselves to be the most educated east of the Niger with almost all citizens literate baggers the imagination. One therefore wonders what sort of education? “Passing Six without Sense”, as our forbears said long ago.
Once more, the stage is being set for another set of ‘neither-nors’ to select themselves and spread-eagle this already comatose state and ravish it all over again. On one side is the incumbent governor and his minions ready to replace themselves and on the other, hundreds with eyes fixated on the purse from Abuja. Each will try to outdo the other in a process Nigerians call ‘elections’ that however defy the Whiteman’s definition of same.
Since 1999, when our present democracy was returned through the military back door, there has been a geometric decline of sanity in our election cycles. That of 2015 will be a child’s play to what will play out in 2019. Besides, the major deciding factor will no longer be who wields the most money but the most violence, Clear examples are all there.
Yes, there is some angst against the incumbent governor of Imo state but I do not see it as being enough to sway citizens when the money starts flowing from him. Despite all hue and cries, it is amazing that people in the locals are registering officially into APC, not necessarily that they support the party or the incumbent but as a means of getting near the source of distribution of resources. Of course every tom, dick and harry that claims leadership in Igboland and Imo state has one leg in the ruling party is to the governor’s advantage with many hoping that they will spring a surprise on the governor from Abuja.
In the state’s political party permutations, it will take a miracle to take away APC structure from the incumbent. In a dire circumstance it is done in favour of let’s say Ararume, what will the governor do? Understanding the governor’s psychology will help elucidate the answer. He is a man who believes fanatically that he is a jinx breaker. Part of the jinx he believes he has broken and he will sustain is that of no rotation, zoning or ‘equity’. He also believes he can achieve anything he sets his mind on. He has succeeded so far possibly to his own surprise, so he will try more. If the Party is taken over from him, he will take his preferred candidate and structure elsewhere, possibly APGA where he started life. And before we will say ‘impossible,’ who and who in present APGA will say no to the huge financial benefits that will accrue to their persons if the governor suddenly swings over. Aside a possible swing back to APGA if the governor looses out in APC, another beautiful option is one of the new famed mega parties and the minions of the smaller parties, after all, an Ohakim made it through a fairly unknown party.
But would APC desperate to hold on to a state in the East be willing to gamble away this single state against their governor? If APC wins in Anambra, and I doubt the possibility, they may gamble away a Rochas that has become some sort of reproach to the party. However, the permutation is stronger on the side of APC national backing Rochas and whoever he throws up as his replacement to the hilt.
Therefore, in a situation Ararume does not pick up the APC ticket, what would be his likely options? As usual, he will fight the party till the last while pitching his supporters into another. This time, not to support another party or candidate but to run on another platform. I strongly suspect that he will likely be making overtures to APGA by now. I would be surprised if he has not started doing that. An Ararume in APGA will be formidable as he has the structures whose only duty will simply be an invocation of the old emotions of Igbo and APGA while throwing up much money to back it up. What deals and concessions he would want to make at the national of APC if he were to switch camp to APGA are numerous, chief amongst them a promise to move back to APC if he wins and also possibly making a deal with APGA at the national not to field a presidential candidate against APC. It is usually done and has been done before by APGA and so would not come as a surprise.
It should also be noted that this would likely be the last attempt at the governorship by the Senator and so he is possibly going to throw in everything, just about everything. Lest not forget that real or imagined, he has always been perceived as making more money than he had ever put in every election cycle. This time may be different as the gaps are narrower for such time tested strategy.
On the other side is also the argument that because of the need for a post tenure safety net, the governor may simply bow to pressure from Abuja, allow the Senator or any other indorsed from Abuja to emerge as APC candidate and negotiate himself into safety of a national position to escape possible post tenure hounding that will likely follow his departure from Douglas House.
We cannot also run away from the fact of a possible deal within the Orlu enclave between the governor and his brother the current serving senator. More on that later.
It should also be noted that within APGA, Okey Eze has started again. I do suspect that he is as usual financing the state structure while at the same time he has started building up his campaign structure with consultation to local state stakeholders. How far he will go with APGA remains to be seen as what happened to him in the past would likely re occur despite political promises. What will he do, if the past re occurs? Play hardball till the end again?
Okey Eze appears a likeable fellow but however lacks the finesse and razzmatazz Imo politicians are known for. This does not belie a possible inner strength for him to have come this far.
The directionless PDP is still reeling from their internal fight until the Supreme Court decides. As in all things PDP, any group that wins, takes over everything. Internal reconciliation is a pipe dream in PDP history. The party has always been a winner takes all affairs.
The earlier PDP sorts out its affairs at the Supreme Court the better for the party. If the Makrafi group emerges tops, then the ripples in Imo would mean the triumph of the Ihedioha/Udenwa group. If Sherrif emerges winner, the ball turns to the Generalissimo, Senator Hope Uzodimma. If the second scenario plays out, Hope will naturally emerge the party’s governorship hopeful despite zoning or no zoning. A Hope governorship candidacy will be dismissed at the opponent’s detriment. Over the years he has emerged from obscurity to become a master of the game. If he does emerge, the Orlu clannish factor will once more ride on his favour because as far as Orlu is concerned, like the Hausa/Fulani of Nigeria, the governorship can as well stay with them forever.
This possible scenario will also throw up another, that is, a possible Rochas/Hope rapprochement under the pan-Orlu banner. On the other hand as earlier mentioned, if the Makrafi group emerges, PDP will likely become more energised and real opposition work in the state will start. However, selecting a governorship candidate from amongst this faction will not be as easy as contemplated. Would it be Ihedioha or Ohakim or the hundred more already oiling their structures.
The nuisance value of the myriads of small political parties will once more come into play as the elections draw near. The loosers in all the major political parties as usual will jump ship and scamper for the small parties to further flex muscles. And these parties are purpose made for such scenario. They do not have any intent or interest or capacity to win rather to grab the few pennies that will come their way until the next four year cycle. They are also used as fronts by incumbents and strong candidates to whittle down opponent’s catchment areas and to out rightly embarrass opponents.
The small parties will make more money this election cycle more than the previous times if they position themselves well. The simple reason being that political positions have become the single easiest vehicle to wealth. However, out of the many small parties is Chekwas’ UPP. On paper, and manifesto, it is ideal but its promoter has garnered a lot of baggage that may make politicians weary. Equally gambling with any of the small parties is an exercise not only in running a governorship election but in building a political party as none of them in real terms has what can be called a political structure. Building a state political party structure while running an election as important as the governorship can be scary.
The cost implications of the next election will be mind bugling and staggering and it is not all as the APC will not wait for INEC, already they have taken it over both body and spirit. Another critical issue any politician will forgo at his or her detriment will be the call to disrupt the election especially in the Eastern and South South zones. Those who will stand and win the next elections are equally those who are ready to pay the price not only in cash but in blood. The Rivers’ state example will be the standard to be beaten and it will be beaten. The only way good men can get in is simply to play rogue and play with the rogues hoping to turn a new leave when they stabilize power. This will be easier said than done.
…to be continued.
Ibe Gerald
OBLONG MEDIA UNLIMITED 
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