Nigeria security report June 2023 – By Beacon intel

OVERVIEW

The Beacon atmospherics platforms continue to monitor the fluid security threat levels in the different geopolitical regions of the country associated mainly with the activities of non-state armed groups (NSAGs) and criminal gangs including Islamist terror groups with international affiliations in mainly the North East and the Lake Chad Basin, separatists in the South East, gunmen and bandits in the North West and North Central and militants and organised criminal gangs in the South-South and South West. Other security concerns affecting the country are the farmer versus herder violence, social upheaval and heavy-handedness and non-compliance with rules of engagement by the security forces. These are ongoing in spite of the concerted efforts of the security forces to mitigate the insecurity.

Below is the outline of the contents of the June 2023 Nigeria Security Report:

Summary of June 2023, Quarter 2 2023, Biannual Analysis, Abduction Trend Analysis, and Comparisons

Update on the Transition: Evolving Security Considerations

New Leadership is Some Security Organisations – High Expectations

New Sheriff in Town: The Ag. IGP Announces Paradigm Shift

Suspension and Investigation of the Central Bank of Nigeria Governor and the Chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission

Peaceful Eid Celebrations Despite Security Warnings of Planned Attacks

Extra-Judicial Killings (Jungle Justice)

Rare Court Judgements on the National Intelligence Agency

Inter-Community Violence in Parts of Benue State

Post-inauguration Tension in Kano and Zamfara states

FCT Abuja Trend Analysis

Lagos Trend Analysis

Trend Analysis of Geopolitical Regions in Nigeria

Data Analysis June 2023 (Incidents, Fatalities and Abductions)

Accordingly, in the sixth month of the year, we recorded 460 incidents that resulted in 239 abductions and 854 fatalities. These affected 234 Local Government Areas in 36 states plus the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja. Below is a month-to-month analysis of the changes in the figures recorded in May 2023 and June 2023:

Incidents – May (332) and June (460) representing a 31.3% increase; 

Fatalities – May (675) and June (854) representing a 26.4% increase, and Abduction – May (168) and June (239) representing a 35.1% increase.

OVERVIEW

Update on the Transition: Evolving Security Considerations

Negative mobilisation and ethnic issues that were prevalent in the 2023 election cycle have continued to impact policy issues in the transition and post-inauguration periods. In one such instance, on June 7, 2023, the immediate former Governor of Kaduna State, Nasir El-Rufai was seen in a viral video making a statement regarding the concept of a Muslim-Muslim ticket in Nigerian politics as he addressed Muslim clerics while allegedly insinuating that it was only when Muslims dominated the state government that the administration was fair to all.

In the context of the statement, a Muslim-Muslim ticket referenced a political alliance or candidacy where both individuals running for key positions, such as president and vice-president or governor and deputy governor, belong to the Muslim faith. The statement on the Muslim-Muslim ticket stirred both mixed reactions of support and criticism. Supporters assert that the primary factor for selecting candidates should be their competence and merit, regardless of their religious affiliation. They further argue that solely emphasising religious diversity may undermine the appointment of capable leaders who can effectively tackle the nation’s or state’s challenges. On the other hand, critics have expressed concerns about the potential ramifications of a Muslim-Muslim ticket, particularly in Nigeria, a diverse country with a significant Christian population. They contend that such a ticket could intensify religious tensions, marginalise non-Muslim citizens, and foster a sense of exclusion. While both viewpoints are considered valid, it is credible to anticipate that this statement will revive discussions on the role of religion in Nigerian politics, as religious identity often influences voting patterns and political alliances.

It is assessed as credible that the use of negative mobilisation, such as exploiting ethnic sentiments and identity politics, further heightened tensions and hindered efforts to foster national unity. It is also assessed as credible that the consequences of such divisions include a breach of trust and cooperation among different ethnic groups, which in turn affects the formulation of inclusive policies that address the needs of all Nigerians. We continue to observe that after the 2023 general elections, policy discussions are being perceived as ethnic biases and preferences, making it challenging to achieve consensus and develop effective policies that promote the overall welfare of the nation. This in turn results in unequal access to social services, infrastructure development, and economic opportunities, perpetuating socio-economic disparities across different regions and ethnicities.

In another development, the removal of fuel subsidies and the subsequent reaction from organised labour has generated national discourse. Although the subsidy removal is an effort of the government to reduce the economic strain of the subsidy in the national budget and allocate the funds to other sectors of the country, the removal led to an astronomical rise in the cost of living for the average Nigerian. One of the most impacted sectors is transportation, which in turn affected other areas such as the cost of food items and other products. In response to the removal of subsidies, organised labour in Nigeria, such as the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and the Trade Union Congress (TUC), mobilised for strikes and other forms of industrial action. On June 2, 2023, the NLC declared a strike to express dissatisfaction with the subsidy removal. However, the strike was short-lived as the National Industrial Court of Nigeria in Abuja, on June 5, 2023, issued an order for the Union to cease the strike following a request for an interim injunction from the federal government. A series of engagements followed between the government and organised labour. Subsequently, on June 19, 2023, the federal government, the TUC, and the NLC established a joint committee to evaluate the proposal for a wage increase, develop a framework and timeline for its implementation, assess the World Bank-funded cash transfer scheme, and suggest the inclusion of low-income earners in the program. Additionally, they agreed to revive the conversion program previously agreed upon with labour centres in 2021 and devise a comprehensive plan for its implementation and timing. While these actions are viewed as a positive step, we will continue to monitor the execution of the wage increment framework alongside the activities of the newly formed committee and the potential impact of these policy measures.

OVERVIEW

On June 27, 2023, the European Union Election Observer Mission, in what is generally perceived as tardy and has the potential of impacting the ongoing legal disputation, published a report, which faulted the conduct and outcome of the 2023 general election. The report generated mixed reactions, including the one by the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC), which rejected the report describing it as biased and an attempt to ridicule the Nigeria electoral system and its umpire. The APC noted that the EU relied mainly on unverified social media reports. On the other hand, the opposition parties, the Peoples Democratic Party and the Labour Party contended that the EU report was a reflection of the position of the electorate.

New Leadership in Some Security Sector Organisations – High Expectations 

On June 19, 2023, the Bola Ahmed Tinubu administration announced the appointment of new leadership in some of the agencies and departments in the security sector. The appointments included:

Nuhu Ribadu as the National Security Adviser (NSA).

Major General Christopher Musa as the Chief of Defence Staff (CDS).

Maj. Gen. Taoreed Lagbaja as Chief of Army Staff (COAS).

Air Vice Marshal (AVM) Hassan Bala Abubakar as Chief of Air Staff (CAS).

Rear Admiral Emmanuel Ogalla as Chief of Naval Staff (CNS).

The development generated national discourse, with many welcoming it as a first step in the new administration’s attempt to meet the objectives of the 7-point agenda on national security set out in its Renewed Hope manifesto. Others welcomed the inclusiveness and diversity, especially the federal character reflected in the appointments. Those criticising the appointments narrowed down the choice of a partisan and non-military person as NSA, as well as the absence of women. Notwithstanding these diverse views, the general expectation is for significant operational and strategic activities in addressing the prevailing challenges of crime and insecurity in the country, some of which are the weak and ineffective criminal justice system, violent criminality across the country, heavy-handedness and abuse of power by the security forces, the activities of terror cells, the increasing activities of bandits in the North Central and North West, the sustained insurgency in the South East, and renewed identity and resource-based conflict in Plateau, Kaduna, Benue and Taraba States.

Since resuming their various offices, the new security leadership have made notable and strategic developments. The office of the NSA has witnessed mostly ceremonial changes, with the handover ceremony held on June 26, 2023. This has also been the case from the office of the CDS, who assumed office on June 23, 2023.

Major shake-ups have been noticed in the Nigerian Army as the COAS hit the ground running upon assuming office on June 26, 2023, with the appointment and redeployment of General Officers Commanding (GOCs), Commanders, and other officers to enhance the administrative and operational efficiency of the Nigerian Army; these redeployments take effect on July 3, 2023. In the same vein, the CAS, upon assumption of office on June 22, 2023, approved the redeployment of 98 senior officers, comprising 52 Air Vice Marshals (AVMs) and 46 Air Commodores. The CNS, upon assumption of office on June 23, 2023, reshuffled the appointments of top senior officers, comprising 56 Rear Admirals and a Commodore. There are reports that over 100 military generals will lose their jobs as a result of these developments. Is assessed as credible that this attrition in the military is leading to the loss of valuable resources and capabilities at a time when it is being increasingly saddled with the responsibility of managing a diversity of security challenges affecting the country.

As experienced individuals in their respective fields, they have demonstrated their capabilities in previous roles, which makes their appointments largely welcomed by the rank and file of their respective services and also the Nigerian public.

It is assessed as credible that the new administration will need to follow up on the appointments by ensuring it: Appoints credible and competent persons to head cabinet positions that have a role in the security sector, such as the ministers of defence, interior, police affairs, and justice/attorney general of the federation.

OVERVIEW

Pursue an elaborate security sector reform and improve security sector governance to entrench transparency and probity in the sector as a way of achieving its stated objective of winning the hearts and minds of the people. An important element of this is enhancing monitoring and evaluation, and auditing functions in the ministries, departments, and agencies in the security sector.

Review the ombudsman’s functions within the security sector to either strengthen or appoint them. As an example in the intelligence community, where the governing laws provide for ombudsmen but they have yet to be appointed. Ombudsmen, also referred to as Ombudspersons and/or Ombuds Institutions, can perform highly segmented monitoring, oversight, arbitration, and investigation roles in military institutions, law enforcement institutions, and the intelligence sector. A situation where Nigeria does not maintain a database of former dismissed or retired security and law enforcement personnel will continue to breed insecurity in the country.

Get the buy-in of the legislature and governors to ensure support for the security imperative.

New Sheriff in Town: The Ag. IGP Announces Paradigm Shift

On June 19, 2023, President Ahmed Bola Tinubu appointed Olukayode Adeolu Egbetokun, PhD, NPM, as the Acting Inspector-General of Police (Ag. IGP). As is the tradition in the Nigeria Police Force (NPF), a series of events and the handover ceremony was concluded, and, Egbetokun officially took over from the immediate past IGP, Usman Baba, on June 20, 2023, with a decoration ceremony conducted by Vice President Kashim Shettima on June 21, 2023. Subsequently, he assumed office as the 22nd indigenous IGP on the same day.

Describing himself as a “tiger, who was ready to roar” and a “lion ready to devour”, meaning a dedicated enforcer against criminals in Nigeria, the Ag. IGP expressed his commitment to safeguarding the lives and well-being of all citizens. On June 23, 2023, in a demonstration of his commitment, the Ag IGP started by engaging with several strategic components, comprising members of the Force Management Team, Assistant Inspector-Generals of Police, Commissioners of Police, and other Heads of Police Formations in the country, at the Goodluck Ebele Jonathan Peacekeeping Hall, Force Headquarters, Abuja.

The highlights of the IGP’s policing vision include;

Upholding the sanctity of the legal framework of the Nigeria Police Force, the Ag. IGP highlighted the significance of accountability among senior officers and commanders. He stressed the need for them to oversee their subordinates and ensure compliance with traffic light regulations. This emphasis on accountability aims to enhance discipline within the police force and promote a culture of proper supervision and adherence to rules and regulations. By holding senior officers accountable, the Ag. IGP seeks to foster a more efficient and law-abiding police organisation.

Tackling the menace of crimes and criminality with the establishment of a specialised Quick Intervention Squad comprising combat-ready Police Mobile Force personnel with effective and enhanced training in crisis de-escalation and violent crime reduction strategies. This will include, the withdrawal of Police Mobile Force (PMF) personnel from Very Important Persons (VIPs) to establish a 40,000-strong Special Intervention Squad and the use of supernumerary officers. A guiding committee will ensure transparency throughout the process, while the squad will enhance rapid response capabilities. This squad will be deployed nationwide, including in areas prone to terrorist attacks.

Leveraging cutting-edge tools, data analytics, and intelligence networks for a robust and effective human and technical intelligence-gathering process to enhance Police capacity. Furthermore, the Ag. IGP vowed to make community policing work while stressing that human intelligence garnered from communities would be used alongside the technical gathering of information to curb crimes and complement strategies and tactics to secure the country and protect Nigerians from all forms of security challenges, including banditry and gunmen attacks.

OVERVIEW

Strengthening inter-agency collaboration, recognizing that effective law enforcement requires cooperation and coordination among different agencies, he advocates for enhanced partnerships and information sharing with other government bodies, security agencies, and relevant stakeholders to improve intelligence gathering, enhance operational effectiveness, and ensure a more comprehensive and coordinated approach to addressing security challenges in the country.

On June 30, the Ag. IGP directed the development of a comprehensive training programme that focuses on attitudinal and behavioural changes to enhance professionalism, effectiveness, and public trust in law enforcement personnel, emphasising values like integrity, effective communication, and respectful interactions with the public. The programme includes scenarios and simulations for critical decision-making and community relations and involves collaboration with trainers, subject matter experts, and community stakeholders for its development.

These developments mark a significant departure from past practices within the police force and signal a paradigm shift towards enhancing internal security. Such changes prioritise public safety and inclusivity, creating a policing framework that caters to the needs of all Nigerians and fosters a safer environment nationwide. It is assessed as credible that beyond these noble ideas, the Ag. IGP will need to complete the police reform embarked upon by the immediate past administration of former President Muhammadu Buhari, and its implementation road map for embedding accountability and professionalism, promoting community policing, investing in training and capacity building, upgrading equipment and technology, improving welfare and compensation, initiating legal and legislative reforms, and fostering collaboration and partnerships. It is also assessed as credible that the Ag. IGP’s ability to achieve the objectives of the reform agenda and the ongoing efforts to transform the NPF into a more professional, accountable, and community-oriented institution that effectively addresses security challenges and upholds the rule of law will go a long way toward contributing to the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu administration’s desire to win the hearts and minds of the people as a prerequisite for improved national security.

Suspension and Investigation of Central Bank Governor and Chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission

As part of his effort to address some critical socio-economic challenges he inherited, on June 9, 2023, President

Bola Ahmed Tinubu suspended the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor, Godwin Emefiele, and on June 14, 2023, the Chairman of Economic and Financial Crime Commission (EFCC), Abdulrasheed Bawa. The suspension of the leadership of the CBN and the EFCC was contained in statements separately issued by the Director of Information at the office of the Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Willie Bassey, where he stated that the suspensions were to allow for investigation of the affected individuals and their stewardship of the two organisations.

The suspension of the CBN Governor followed an ongoing investigation of his office and the planned reforms in the economy’s financial sector – See our December 2022 Nigeria Security Report. The Bola Ahmed Tinubu administration directed the Deputy Governor (Operations Directorate), to act as the Central Bank Governor pending the conclusion of the investigation and the reforms. Following this development, the State Security Service (SSS), also known as Department of State Services (DSS), in a press statement on June 10, 2023, stated that they arrested the suspended CBN Governor Emefiele and took him into custody. The DSS Spokesperson Peter Afunanya, stated that Mr Emefiele was taken into custody for investigative reasons. There are speculations that the suspended CBN Governor was taken from his home in Lagos to the SSS headquarters in the Asokoro District of Abuja.

Relatedly, the suspension of the EFCC Chairman, Abdulrasheed Bawa was following “weighty allegations of abuse of office levelled against him”, as indicated in the statement issued by the Director of Information at the Office of the Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Willie Bassey.

OVERVIEW

The EFCC Chairman was directed to hand over the affairs of the Commission to the Director of Operations, to allow for proper investigation into his conduct while in office. Accordingly, the Department of State Services (DSS) in a statement on June 14, 2023, indicated that the EFCC Chairman submitted himself to the invitation and interrogation of the secret police.

It is recalled that on December 7, 2022, the DSS had filed an ex parte application at the Federal High Court against the CBN governor, Mr Godwin Emefiele over alleged “acts of financing terrorism, fraudulent activities and economic crimes of national security dimension” which was botched by a restraining order from Judge M.A Hassan on December 29, 2022 (see the December 2022 Nigeria Security Report). It is assessed as credible that the suspended CBN Governor Emefiele’s unprecedented involvement in partisan politics, and the economic crisis that followed the naira redesign, among others, have made him hugely unpopular. It is also assessed as credible that Mr Bawa’s integrity has been questioned due to his close relationship with the immediate past Minister of Justice and the Attorney General of the Federation, Abubakar Malami, his alleged financial recklessness and auspicious lifestyle and, an accusation by the immediate-past governor of Zamfara State, Bello Matawalle, who in May 2023 accused him of demanding $2 million as a bribe. However, there are speculations that the suspension and investigation of the CBN Governor and the EFCC Chairman might be part of a targeted political witch hunt initiated by the new government against some key officials of the former administration.

Rare Court Judgements on the National Intelligence Agency

In the monitored period, there were two court judgements that affected one of Nigeria’s most secretive security agencies, the National Intelligence Agency (NIA). The first judgement was on June 9, 2023, when the presiding Judge of the Federal High Court, Chukwujekwu Aneke in Ikoyi Lagos state terminated the money laundering case filed by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) against the former Director-General of the National Intelligence Agency (NIA), Ayodele Oke, over the discovery of $43,000,000, £27,000 and N23 million in a flat in Osbourne road, Ikoyi, Lagos. The termination of the case was initiated by the EFCC, with no objection from the defence team led by Kayode Ajulo of the Castle of Law Chambers, and was approved by former president Muhammadu Buhari before he left office on May 29, 2023. This is following an investigation in April 2017, which resulted in the discovery of the indicated sum in a flat on Osborne Road in Ikoyi, by the EFCC after a tip from an anonymous whistle-blower. However, reports stated that the NIA claimed that the discovered funds were collected from the account of the National Petroleum Investment Management Service (NAPIMS) at the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in February 2015, for the sole purpose of covert intelligence operations. A three-man panel headed by the former vice-president, Yemi Osibanjo, indicted the former NIA DG and recommended his dismissal.

In another development, on June 22, 2023, the Court of Appeal, Abuja division, headed by Justice Peter Ige, affirmed the decision of the National Industrial Court to reinstate Mohammed Dauda as the Director-General of the National Intelligence Agency (NIA) in Nigeria. The Industrial Court on March 6, 2018, ruled that the evidence leading to Dauda’s dismissal was capricious and without validity and that Dauda should be allowed to retire in service in accordance with the stipulated laws, the Industrial Court decision stands. The court also ruled that Dauda’s removal violated the NIA Act, and ordered that he will be given his salaries, entitlements from the day of his dismissal from office, and N1 million in damages. Dauda was the head of the security agency from November 2017 to January 2018, when he was replaced by an aide to the then President, Muhammadu Buhari. Dauda challenged his removal in Court and argued that in contravention of the law, a Special Management Staff Disciplinary Committee (SMSDC) was set up to investigate the charges against him and that he was not given a fair hearing afterwards. The court ruled that the appropriate committee to investigate disciplinary cases against management staff is the management staff disciplinary committee and not the SMSDC.

OVERVIEW

The National Intelligence Agency (NIA) operates secretly and clandestinely, and the litigations against two of its former director generals might have exposed some of the ethical and maladministration challenges of the agency to the public. It is assessed as credible that the appointment of an ombudsman within the intelligence community would reduce the hearing of such disputes and lower the possibility of further endangering national security. It is also assessed as credible that the recourse to national security as a basis to continue the financial malfeasance in the security sector in Nigeria will prevent the stated desire of the Bola Ahmed Tinubu administration to win the hearts and minds of the people as the public finds the seeming lack of accountability in intelligence agencies to be one of the most frightening aspects, as their secrecy bequeaths uncontrollability.

Extra-Judicial Killings (Jungle Justice)

We continue to monitor the intractable issue of extrajudicial killings by security operatives and mob actions in the reporting period (see the Beacon Nigeria Security Report May 2023), which has repeatedly generated national discourse and public outcry in its wake, engendering questions regarding the legitimacy and consequence of the act. In this regard, on June 10, 2023, a local chief identified as Alhaji Jalomi, and his two sons killed a man in Goni Waje in Dako Kangarwa village, Yunusari Local Government Area of Yobe State. The deceased was reportedly attacked with a cutlass and burned to death following accusations of having a sexual relationship with the wife of the local chief. Similarly, on June 11, 2023, the Adamawa Police Command arrested three officers and eight men for killing two women over alleged witchcraft, in Roma community, Dumne Development Area in Song Local Council of the state. The Police officers and some members of the Vigilante group, attached to Dumne Divisional Police Headquarters, were sighted maltreating and assaulting three women in an unprofessional manner, which resulted in two of them being brutally murdered.

On June 25, 2023, an irate mob killed a butcher, Usman Buda, after he was accused of making blasphemous comments against Prophet Muhammad (SAW), and allegedly refused to repent when asked to do so by his colleagues. The victim was stoned to death by numerous people at an abattoir, located within Sokoto city. However, there have been speculations that the death of the butcher was a willful murder that allegedly stemmed from envy by his colleagues, as many, including notable clerics, confirm that the deceased was a pious Muslim.

Inter-Community Violence in Parts of Benue State

The conflict dynamics in Benue state are continuing with incidents of inter-community violence and nonstate armed groups attacks recorded in some parts of the state. In this regard, on June 13, 2023, at least 20 houses were torched in a violent clash between the Mbasombo and Mbaivur communities of Ikpayongo in the Gwer East Local Government Area of Benue State. The clash was reportedly triggered by the assassination of an indigene of Mbaivur, who was allegedly killed by the Mbasombo while he was labouring on his farm on June 9, 2023. Reports indicate that the bereaved community gave a timeline for the provision of the perpetrators of the act, and when the ultimatum was not met, the people of Mbaivur orchestrated a reprisal attack.

A similar incident occurred on June 11, 2023, in Oju LGA, when youths of Ibilla and Oju communities engaged each other in a wrangle over the citing of a private tertiary institution on a piece of land both of the parties were laying claims to. It was gathered that an academic from the Ibilla community had been awarded a licence to establish a private University in the area, and the dispute over the land where the institution would be situated triggered scuffles leading to two fatalities and significant property damage. In response to these incidents, the Benue State government on June 14, 2023, imposed a dusk-to-dawn curfew on all the communities in the Oju LGA leading to an increase in security forces deployment.

The Mbasombo and Mbaivur communities are both predominantly agrarian, and their livelihoods depend on farming and other agricultural activities. However, the scarcity of arable land has led to tensions between the two communities, with each claiming ownership of certain portions of land and accusing the other of encroachment. It is assessed as credible that the conflict will sustain unless the local and state governments manage the resource-based conflict that continues to affect the communities.

Peaceful Eid Celebrations Despite Security Warnings of Planned Attacks

A generally peaceful Eid al-Adha or Eid-il-Kabir celebration was held across Nigeria on June 28 – 29, 2023. This was the case in the North East and North West regions where in past Eid celebrations NSAGs had perpetrated attacks. The only Eid-related security incident we recorded was the pelting of the Governor of Osun State, Segun Adeleke at the Eid ground in the capital, Osogbo, by suspected political thugs.

The Nigeria Police Force and other security organisations announced increased deployment ahead of the celebration. This came after the State Security Service (SSS), otherwise called the Department of State Service (DSS), on June 23, 2023, issued a warning alerting the public that there were plans to attack worship and recreational centres before and during the festivities. The SSS cited the recovery of Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) by security forces in several parts of the North as indicators of this plan and called on the public to be vigilant and support ongoing efforts to prevent attacks by non-state armed groups (NSAGs).

Despite the above warning by the SSS, we did not record any statement or media release by the two active

Islamist Jihadist groups in Nigeria, the Jamatus Ahlis Sunna lil Dawatil wal Jihad or Boko Haram and the Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP) or their parent bodies, Al Qaeda and the Islamic State (IS) to indicate the commencement of a campaign related to the Eid-al-Adha celebration. 

Post-Inauguration Tension in Kano and Zamfara States

In the review period, we observed heated disputations between the new and former state governments in Kano and Zamfara states following disagreements over some policy issues contended by the two sides. In this regard, on June 3, 2023, the new Governor of Kano state, Abba Kabir Yusuf of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), began the demolition of alleged illegal structures erected by the past administration of former State Governor, Abdullahi Umar Ganduje of the All Progressives Congress (APC).

The demolition affected commercial buildings, malls and shops built by the perimeter fence of Sani Abacha Stadium at Kofar Mata, Government Girls Secondary School (GSS) Kofar Nassarawa facing IBB road, and buildings by Goron Dutse Secondary School (GGSS) Dukawuya, Goron Dutse as well as popular roundabout by the Government House. In a statement by the Chief Press Secretary to the new Governor, Bature Tofa, on June 15, 2023, the state government provided the following reasons for the demolition: “to allow for immediate reconstruction and downsizing, to ensure visibility for security surveillance to the entrance of the government house, and vehicular access to all routes linked through the roundabout. He also noted that the State government consulted professional engineers, who ascertained that the golden jubilee monument construction was substandard and had the propensity to collapse between 2023 and 2024”.

The demolition has generated diverse reactions including street protests and vandalism, and has claimed lives and led to the destruction of buildings and other assets in the state. Notably, on June 15, 2023, 1 person died and 3 sustained varying degrees of injuries as youths tried to cart away the wreckage from the demolished alleged illegal structures at the former Daula Hotel along Murtala Muhammad Way. Furthermore, the demolition has caused substantial anxiety and public condemnation in the State and paved the way for opportunistic crimes to be committed by hoodlums. Particularly, on June 9, 2023, over 100 looters were arrested by the State Police Command, upon the commencement of the demolition.

We are monitoring a similar post-inauguration tension in Zamfara State, following a disagreement between the past and present administrations regarding State House assets and alleged fraud. The incumbent Zamfara state Governor, Dauda Lawal, a member of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) on June 1, 2023, accused his predecessor, Bello Matawalle, a member of the All Progressives Congress (APC) of unlawful acquisition of official assets with impunity from the government house before handing over the state leadership, leaving behind an empty treasury and huge debts. However, the All Progressive Congress (APC) publicity secretary, Yusuf Gusau, debunked the allegation stating that the items that were declared stolen were at the State House during the swearing-in of the new Governor while other eligible items had been auctioned according to the laws of the state. 

Accordingly, on June 9, 2023, armed security operatives from the Police Force and the State Security Service (SSS) raided Bello Mattawalle’s houses in Gusau and Maradun towns, Zamfara State resulting in the seizure of at least 40 vehicles. Mr Deyemi Saka, media consultant to the former governor of Zamfara State, Mr Bello Matawalle, on June 14, 2023, accused Governor Dauda Lawal of using the Police Command in the state to humiliate and harass the former Governor, stating that the invasion of his residence was illegal and an infringement on the rule of law and due process. However, Governor Dauda Lawal’s spokesperson, Sulaiman Bala Idris, stated that the State government officially communicated to Mr. Matawalle and his Deputy that all State government assets in their possession should be returned within five days and that the security operatives acted upon a court order after a search warrant was obtained for the operation.

It is assessed as credible that prior to this development, Matawalle was entangled in a corruption allegation by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) who initiated a probe on the former governor on allegations of a N70 billion fraud. In response, Matawalle had accused the suspended EFCC chairman, Abdurashid Bawa, of soliciting a $2 million bribe from him. It is also assessed as credible that the incumbent’s persistent pressure on his predecessor to relinquish unlawfully acquired assets and the new Kano State government’s demolition agenda has the potential to ignite sporadic tension among partisan supporters of both parties and elevate the risk of targeted assaults against individuals or organisations associated with them in the two states.

FCT ABUJA TREND ANALYSIS

In June 2023, the security situation in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Abuja remained fluid. A total of twelve incidents and one fatality were reported. A comparison of June 2023 and May 2023 occurrences in FCT Abuja indicates that In June 2023, 12 incidents were recorded while May 2023 had 17 incidents – a total decrease of 5 incidents. The incidents ranged from security forces operations to violent and opportunistic criminal activities including criminal abduction. In this regard, we monitored an increase in incidents of robbery attacks and opportunistic and violent criminality in parts of FCT Abuja. Among the several trends monitored include the use of commercial vehicles for criminal activities locally termed One Chance, attacks mainly stabbing along isolated routes on drivers and passengers of vehicles that break down, vehicle vandalisation, and the stealing of the brain box or the Engine Control Unit of vehicles and house break in. The anecdotal information attributes the rise in these crimes to the socio-economic hardships engendered by the economic policies recently introduced by the government and the failure of the security forces and law enforcement agencies to take proactive preventative measures.

We continue to monitor ongoing violent criminal activities in the outlying council areas of Abaji, Bwari, Gwagwalada and Kuje mainly, where gunmen raid communities and abduct residents. As for abduction in

FCT Abuja, 12 and 17 incidents were recorded in June and May 2023 respectively. In this regard, on June 2, 2023, in the Ketti community of Abuja Municipal Area Council (AMAC), gunmen abducted the village head and two unidentified individuals, causing heightened tensions and apprehension among the community members. Similarly, In the early hours of June 7, 2023, armed individuals raided Yangoji village, Kwali Area Council. According to open-sourced reports, the gunmen arrived in the community and fired multiple gunshots before forcibly taking away a seven-year-old minor. Kwali has become a hotspot for such incidents, largely due to the thin deployment of security forces.

Notably on June 9, 2023, an unidentified armed man on a motorbike shot a police officer standing guard at the Embassy of the United States of America (USA) compound at Mambilla Street, Maitama, FCT Abuja. Also, on June 9, 2023, a team of security forces operatives shot and dispossessed a policeman on duty after which they took away his service gun at a retired judge’s residence in Ministers Quarters Maitama, Abuja Municipal Area Council (AMAC). Our sources reveal that the policeman was part of a group of rogue police personnel suspected to have been involved in criminal activity. In another incident, unidentified gunmen abducted a woman identified as Mrs Joy Deke, on June 14, 2023, around the Catholic Papal’s Ground, opposite the Federal Housing Estate, Kubwa, Abuja.

In response to these developments, security forces operations are ongoing in an attempt to contain the increasing spate of insecurity in the country’s capital, especially in the outskirts and shanty areas. Notably, on June 11, 2023, the anti-Kidnapping unit of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Police Command successfully apprehended a suspected informant and logistic supplier allegedly connected to a notorious banditry and kidnapping group, identified as Mohammed Hamza, alias Auta, in the Mongoro Forest. The suspect has reportedly been on the Command’s wanted list for supplying firearms, ammunition, weapons, food items, and illicit drugs to the criminals in their forest hideouts using a motorcycle. Investigations are now underway to dismantle the criminal supply chain and apprehend other gang members. Additionally, the Command also arrested eleven individuals involved in armed robbery, possession of illegal firearms, and the proliferation of small arms.

It is assessed as credible that the FCT Abuja authorities require a robust security arrangement beyond what is in place currently and that will be coordinated and deployed in layers to detect, deny, delay and allow speedy response in distress situations. In addition, a coordinated security forces’ action involving personnel from states that are conterminous to FCT Abuja is recommended to go after bandits and other gunmen reported to be hibernating in forested and mountainous places in the surrounding areas of the FCT Abuja and neighbouring states. This will prevent their dislodgement and allow an effective and efficient containment and deterrence strategy.

LAGOS STATE TREND ANALYSIS

Over the monitored period, the security trends monitored in Lagos state were social upheaval, armed clashes and violent attacks involving youth gangs as well as violent and opportunistic crimes. Most of the incidents recorded occurred in the Mainland part of the State, particularly in Ikorodu LGA consisting of 8 abductions, and Agege LGA consisting of 1 abduction – 8 fatalities.

In the period under review, we monitored an increase in the trend of criminal activities and political violence with 6 incidents recorded across the state. In this regard, a review of the fatalities in the state indicates that seven (13) deaths and two (9) abductions were recorded across 26 LGAs of the state.

On June 16, 2023, the enforcement team of the Lagos State Building Control Agency (LASBCA), the Lagos State Physical Planning Permit Authority, (LASPPPA), and the Lagos State Task Force embarked on a Joint exercise to enforce the demolition of 17 dilapidated buildings in Alaba International Market in Ojo LGA to avert the collapse of distressed structures, aimed at preventing the loss of lives and property of business owners and residents in the state.

In addition to the now-established pattern of mass casualty attacks by NSAGs in Niger, Kebbi, Kaduna, Katsina and Zamfara states, we monitored a series of attacks in Plateau and Kogi states, which resulted in mass fatalities and necessitated the need for security forces and government intervention. In Plateau State, on June 13, 2023, along Bauchi Ring Road, Jos North LGA, criminals suspected to be bandits abducted University of Jos (UNIJOS) students, holding them hostage for approximately 30 minutes and subsequently contacting their families to demand a ransom for their safe release. Also, the Plateau State government through a statement by the transition chairman, Mangu LGA, Mr. Markus Artu, on June 18, 2023, imposed a 24-hour curfew in Mangu and Riyom LGAs. The curfew was in response to constant attacks by various NSAGs including ethnic militias and criminal gangs that remained predominantly active in the State and caused significant harm to the lives and assets of individuals residing in the impacted area. Our atmospherics platforms continue to report a cycle of reprisal attacks involving communities that had previously coexisted safely in Mangu LGA. At least 45 villages have been targeted in these attacks. In this regard, we recorded significant incidents that resulted in mass fatalities in the State. They include:

On June 13, 2023, unidentified gunmen attacked and killed a reverend father of the Church of Christ in Nation (COCIN) and 20 others in Riyom and Barkin Ladi LGAs.

On June 20, 2023, gunmen suspected to be armed herder militia killed at least 15 residents of Bwai and Chisu communities in Mangu LGA.

On June 20, 2023, at least 22 people were killed and many injured in an attack by NSAGs in Barkin Ladi and Mangu town, Mangu LGA.

Accordingly, the Beacon Incident Reporting System (IRS) recorded a total of 17 incidents in June 2023 as opposed to 2 incidents in June 2022, with a 350.0% increase throughout the monitored period of incidents observed in Plateau state. In June 2023, there were 99 fatalities, indicating an increase of over 200.0% in comparison to June 2022, which recorded only 2 fatalities in Plateau state. However, the incident analysis indicates that between January and June 2022, and January and June 2023, there has been a 27.8% decrease in the total incidents in the state- (36^→26), and a 15.4% decrease in the total fatalities in the state (337^→285).

In Kogi state, we monitor the increase of political violence, attacks by non-state armed groups and opportunistic crimes, presumably engendered by preparations for the state governorship election slated for November 11, 2023, as politicians engage NSAGs to exert influence and sometimes target their opponents. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) stated June 14 –November 9, 2023, as the timeline for political parties to conduct campaigns across the State ahead of the governorship election. Notably, on June 2, 2023, the convoy of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) Gubernatorial candidate, Hon. Muritala Yakubu Ajaka was attacked while returning from a tour in Koton Karfe in the vicinity of the ram market, Lokoja. Also, on June 3, 2023, suspected armed political party supporters attacked the Kogi State Governor, Yahaya Bello, close to a naval base in Lokoja LGA of the state.

These are in spite of the security forces’ operations in the regions. Notably, a joint security team comprising operatives from the State Security Services (SSS), the Nigerian Army, and the Nigeria Police Force carried out operations in Nasarawa and Kogi States. On June 19, 2023, security forces apprehended Abubakar Muhammad (aka Abu Direba), a suspected gunrunner along the Abuja-Keffi Expressway in Keffi LGA of Nasarawa State. Also, on June 22, 2023, security forces raided the hideout of Kabir Bala (aka Okwo), an ex-convict, a jailbreaker, and a notorious gang leader in Ejule town, Ofu LGA, Kogi State, resulting in the death of two people and an unspecified number of others sustained injuries. Similarly, on June 22, 2023, security forces engaged in a gun duel with unidentified armed men, resulting in the death of one of the gunmen, and others sustaining varying degrees of injury in Lokoja Town, Lokoja LGA, Kogi state.

NORTH EAST REGION

During the period under review, we recorded a continuation of the security forces operation by components of Operation HADIN KAI and the MULTINATIONAL JOINT TASK FORCE (MNJTF) and various instances of armed attacks by NSAGs and resultant armed clashes between the two sides, particularly in the states of Borno, Yobe, and Adamawa, which remained security challenged due to the activities of the Jamatus Ahlis Sunna lil Dawatil wal Jihad (JAS) popularly called Boko Haram (BH) and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP). 

In the review period, we monitored ongoing security forces operations in northern Adamawa state and eastern, southeastern, and northern Borno. These are consistent with our observed presence of NSAG in these locations and the border communities between Borno and Yobe States. The methods and targets of NSAG attacks included deploying vehicle-borne improvised devices (VBIEDs) mainly around the vicinity of Arege, direct fire attacks at security forces formations, illegal checkpoints along travel routes targeting commuters, attacks on civilian scavengers, farmers, fishermen, and herders who venture outside the garrisoned city centres and opportunistic attacks for supplies. On June 11, 2023 security forces operation WARUN 3 conducted airstrikes which reportedly resulted in the killing of at least 100 NSAGs in the vicinity of Mandara Mountains, Borno State. Another incident in the third week of June 2023, in Ajiri, Mafa LGA may have resulted in the death of at least 150 NSAGs and their family members.

In Maiduguri, the capital of Borno State, we recorded violent and opportunistic criminal activities and the attempt by a youth gang locally called Marlians to exert influence using violence in its attempt to dominate turfs.

In Adamawa State, we recorded Incidents of armed assaults, banditry, criminal abductions, and opportunistic crimes were observed, particularly in the areas of Madagali, Michika, Mubi, and Gombi. On June 7, 2023, unidentified armed individuals suspected to be terrorists abducted Zainab Abbas, the wife of a High Court judge, from her residence in Nyibango, Adamawa State. Likewise, on June 10, 2023, a non-state armed group (NSAG) launched an attack and attempted infiltration near Madagali town, Adamawa State. Similarly, in Balma Community, Ningi LGA, Bauchi State, on June 10, 2023, a non-state armed group, suspected to be terrorists or bandits, killed several residents and abducted the village head. Two days before the mentioned incident, bandits had also abducted the Ward head of the Bakutumbu community and another individual who has yet to be released.

Also, on June 21, 2023, labour unions from Olusegun Agagu University of Science and Technology (OAUSTECH) in Okitipupa, Ondo State, protested at the school gate against the termination of their colleagues by the newly appointed university council members. While these incidents unfolded, a notorious criminal known as Musiliudeen Gbolagade, also called ‘MC,’ was killed during a joint operation by security forces, including operatives from the Western Nigeria Security Network (code-named ‘Amotekun’) and Operation Burst, in the Iseyin community of Iseyin LGA. Sources revealed that MC and his accomplices were allegedly involved in multiple robbery operations and gunfights in the Isalu community and its surroundings.

Other significant trends include road traffic accidents along the Ikirun, Ifelodun LGA, and Ilesa-Akure expressway in Osun State, recurring violent criminal activities in the Moniya area of Ibadan, Oyo State, security force operations leading to the arrest of eight suspected hoodlums for attempted murder and armed robbery in Ile Oragun, Ila LGA, recurring criminal abductions around Nitel Junction in Agege, Agege LGA, Lagos State, and reports of thugs assaulting Segun Showunmi, a governorship aspirant of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), at the entrance of the State Election Petition Tribunal in Abeokuta.

SOUTH SOUTH REGION

In the reporting period, we recorded incidents of militancy, gang violence and ongoing security forces’ operations across the states in the region as well as several violent criminal activities along travel routes in Delta and Edo States, including the Benin bypass, along the Lagos – Onitsha expressway and Lokoja – Auchi road. Other threat factors monitored in the region include the intensification of the armed conflict between security forces and militant groups associated with illegal bunkering, and other criminal activities in Bayelsa and Rivers States. Other trends are the continuation of criminality by armed herder militia groups in parts of Delta and Edo state.

The number of fatalities in the South-South region decreased by 20%, and abductions too decreased by 65% in June 2023 when compared to the figures of May 2023. The states that experienced the most incidents in the region are Rivers (Eleme, Obio/Akpor, Emohua, Port Harcourt LGAs), Delta (Ethiope West, Ethiope East, Oshimili south, Sapele, Udu, Ughelli north, Okpe, Warri south west LGAs), Akwa Ibom(Eastern Obolo, Uyo, Ikot Abasi LGAs), Edo (Ikpoba-Okha, Esan west, Oredo, Obim south west, LGAs), Cross River (Calabar municipal, Port Harcourt, Yakurr LGAs) and Bayelsa (Southern Ijaw LGA), accounting for 13.63% of security events in the area.

In the monitored period, we recorded targeted attacks on communities and security operatives in the region, and increased activity of unidentified gunmen and gangs, especially in Rivers State, Akwa Ibom State and Edo State. Notably, on June 7, 2023, gunmen killed a priest identified as Charles Igechi, of the Benin Archdiocese, on Agbor Road at Bypass area in Ikhueniro axis of Benin, Edo state on his way to his place of assignment. Also, between June 16 -17, 2023, we monitored a high fatality incident count associated with the burial ceremony of a local chief in the vicinity of Eneka axis of Port Harcourt, who they reportedly vowed to bury with 24 human lives. On June 24, 2023, unidentified gunmen suspected to be cultists killed two persons along Ubeta-Owube Road in Owube community in Ahoada-West local Lga, Rivers State.

The above developments are despite the ongoing security forces operations in the region. Accordingly, and in reaction to these developments, the security forces Joint Task Force Operation DELTA SAFE in the conduct of Operation OCTOPUS GRIP and other operations in the South-South region of the country have continued to sustain the war against oil theft, drugs proliferation, illegal refineries and other criminal activities in the Niger Delta through aggressive patrols, raids, swap buggies operations and clearance operations at different locations. Operations were conducted at the creeks, waterways, high seas, towns and cities of Bayelsa, Delta, Rivers, Cross River and Akwa Ibom states, aimed at denying oil theft and other criminal elements freedom of action, thereby creating an enabling environment for economic activities to thrive within the zone. Notably, on June 2 and 3, 2023, the air component of Operation DELTA SAFE conducted an air interdiction operation at Okoro Nyong and Ndele, following an intercepted intelligence of illegal refining activities.

Consequently, the location was bombarded and destroyed while the illegally refined products engulfed equipment in flames as a result of the air strike.

SOUTH EAST REGION

In the monitored period, we reported violent and opportunistic criminal activities, alongside targeted attacks on security forces formations and operatives by separatist groups and their affiliates, in the South-East region. We saw a month-to-month spike in security incidents, abductions, and fatalities across the states in the region. Accordingly, there was a 37.84% increase in the incidents that occurred in the South East, from May to June 2023. The states with the highest number of events in the Southeast were Anambra (Awka North, Ihiala, Idemili South, Oyi, Onitsha North & Onitsha South LGAs), Enugu (Enugu East, Enugu South, Igbo-Eze North & Nsukka LGA) and Ebonyi (Abakaliki, Ivo, Onicha LGA), accounting for 11% of the regional events.

Notably on June 7, 2023, two people, male and female, were caught with two dead bodies, they were reportedly killed for rituals. The two suspects were paraded at Nkwobi market in Ihiala LGA, Anambra State, with the victims’ bodies. Also, on June 16, 2023, the convoy of former Imo State Governor Rochas Okorocha was attacked by unidentified gunmen at the Ihube community on the Okigwe- Enugu expressway, resulting in the death of a police officer. Similarly, on June 18, 2023, gunmen shot and killed a man identified as Assistant Electoral Officer of Afikpo North LGA INEC, Mr. Emmanuel Igwe, along the Ivo Local Government Area axis of Ebonyi State, the victim’s wife was also abducted. On June 23, 2023, gunmen attacked a member of the Central Neighborhood Watch in Igbo-Eze North Local Government Area, Enugu State, resulting in the death of one person. Also, on June 24, 2023, gunmen operating in the Imo axis of the Enugu-Port Harcourt Expressway, killed 2 persons, abducted 9 Enugu-bound passengers, and robbed others of their valuables near the Arondizuogu Junction, along the Enugu–Port Harcourt Expressway in Abia State. On June 30, 2023, two persons suspected to be members of different cult groups were allegedly killed during a clash between rival cult groups at Ukwuoji Bus Stop, along Zik’s Avenue in Awka Awka North LGA of Anambra State.

OUTLOOK

Our outlook for the coming weeks is based on trends derived from the incident analysis in June 2023:

Developments associated with the election petition tribunals at the federal and subnational levels will continue to generate interest and has the potential to engendering social unrest and political violence. As the election petition tribunals near completion, political rhetorics and social upheaval especially protests by civil society organisations and political groups hiding behind civil activists will intensify as a major driver of security challenges,

The inability of ongoing security forces operation to prevent the activities of Non-State Armed Groups in mainly rural communities and along travel routes in North East, North Central, and North West Nigeria as well as parts of South East, South-South and South-West Nigeria will lead to further attacks against defenceless communities in these regions,

Political violence localised to political events and gatherings will continue as preparations for off-cycle elections in Kogi and Imo States. Similarly, the disagreements between the new and former governments and their supporters in Kano, Sokoto and Zamfara states over transition issues have the potential to engender security events,

Criminal activities including kidnap for ransom, violent and petty crimes as well as home invasions are likely to continue in the short and medium terms due to the deteriorating economic circumstances of the country and rising inflation. This is likely to be accentuated by recently introduced government policies that led to the removal of subsidies on petroleum and the floating of the Naira as well as the lingering effects of the Russia – Ukraine war and its impact on commodities and the supply chain disruption it engendered. The trend shows increasing criminal activities, especially in South West Nigeria; it is evolving and requires robust community-based prevention and law enforcement measures.

In the North East, the NSAGs, waging a terror war and the ongoing military operation Hadin Kai and the MNJTF will continue the armed conflict. The restructuring and consolidation of ISWAP and its reduced membership will translate into bolder attacks and other activities of the group. This will mean a continuation of armed attacks and counterattacks as well as illegal checkpoints mounted along major travel routes particularly in Borno state and in the border towns of Yobe and Adamawa states.

By Beacon consulting limited.