Recent Events in Niger Republic: Implications for President Tinubu (I)

“If you want to stop a coup, remove the cause.” – Brigadier (later General) Murtala Mohammed (1938-1976) in September 1974

These are not the best of times for democratically wired Nigeriens.

What are the real issues?

While only time will tell, when parrots jabber, eagles are quiet. Perhaps why when many Nigerians became agitated over the 378 km long Kano to Maradi rail line traversing Jigawa and Katsina States, better-informed Nigerians maintained a stoic silence because the very Hausawa of Katsina exiled by Sokoto Caliphate in the early 1800s are those still holding sway in Maradi.

Understandably, that brief disquiet was therefore political crossfire mostly based on Nigeria’s North-South divide albeit informed by the widespread ignorance of the very deep strategic, political, and economic including close inter-family relations historically existing long before the creation of Nigeria and even Niger republics.

Take, for instance, the brief stretch of open drainage at Dole Kaina in Kebbi State separating Nigeria from Niger Republic. Notice the medium tension electrical infrastructure with the parked car on the Nigerien side. While we are compelled to supply uninterrupted electricity to our Francophone neighbors for nearly free, parts of Dole Kaina are ironically electrified from the Niger end of that border community.

 If not, the Nigeriens will dam the River Niger at their end of the border threatening the combined electric power generation on our side of the border at Kainji, Jebba, and Shiroro that totals 1938 MW.

Now, compare that to the output of Nigeria’s other thermal generating stations at Afam, Egbin, and Ughelli respectively put at 776 MW, 414 MW, and 900 MW.

The dredging of River Niger from Onitsha to Baro near the Federal Capital Territory in the Abaji axis is to ostensibly open up a massive economic corridor and quantum business opportunities that will spill over by rail to not just the Niger Republic but Chad by road under African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) protocols.

Perhaps, nobody understands the imperative of Nigerian-Nigerien relations like Hamani Diori (1916-1989) who once put it, “When Nigeria sneezes, Niger not only catches a cold, it is already on admission in the hospital.”

Former President Buhari who established the Border Communities Development Agency (BCDA) headed by his son-in-law in 2018 to bail out the likes of Dole Kaina must be worried about unfolding events in Niamey because of the political clout he enjoys there. Niger is arguably more of his primary constituency than Nigeria.

The immediate predecessor of Mohamed Bazoum is Mahamadou Issoufou who was the incumbent ahead of the February 2016 presidential elections which he won with 48% of the vote, many thanks to “Guguwar Buhari” – the political hurricane of Buhari as can be gleaned from the then candidate’s campaign Hilux vehicle.

By 2019, when former President Buhari was seeking his second term Governors Issa Moussa and Zakiri Umar respectively of Zinder and Maradi were present with teeming supporters from across the border at the APC rally in Kano to extend massive support on behalf of Issoufou.

On May 23 less than a week before leaving office on May 29, Buhari openly declared on his retirement at the inauguration of the new N19.6 billion Nigerian Customs Service Headquarters complex in Abuja, “I plan to be as far away from Abuja as possible.

I come from a place that is far away from Abuja and closer to Niger Republic. If one fails to secure confidence in his neighbour, he or his grandchild will be in trouble. If anybody with force moves, I have a good relationship with my neighbours. Niger people will defend me.” 

There are three issues to varying degrees on why President Tinubu should be more worried than his immediate predecessor.

First, is on the similar political legitimacy deficit he shares with the former Nigerien leader. On December 27, 2020, general elections were held throughout Niger. Since no presidential candidate mustered enough of the vote to be declared winner by the electoral umpires, it prompted a rerun on February 21, 2022.

This time around, Mohamed Bazoum of PNDS (Tarayya) was declared the winner after raking in a reported 55.67% of the vote. Predictably, the main opposition candidate Mahamane Ousmane of RDR (Tchanji) headed for the Constitutional Court alleging massive irregularities by the ruling party of outgoing President Mahamadou Issoufou.

The negative social media and press reaction was massive. Eventually, with a landmark judicial ruling that favoured Bazoum dismissing Tchanji’s petition in the process, widespread protests immediately broke out across Niger with various clashes involving angry opposition members and policemen culminating in a military coup attempt that was immediately put down by the elite Presidential Guard on March 31, 2022.

To date, many Nigeriens still vehemently insist that not only the National Electoral Commission (CENI) but the Constitutional Court was compromised by the power of incumbency of the ruling PNDS.

President Yar’adua was therefore politically strategic when at his inauguration on May 29, 2007, he openly conceded that the election that brought him into office “had shortcomings” leading him to less than three months later establish a high-powered 22-person electoral reform committee that not only placated Nigeria’s civil society but significantly lowered the political temperature across our nation.

He immediately followed up on our short political attention span with a landmark Niger Delta Amnesty Program. Yar’adua assiduously removed the prevailing angry winds from the opposition sail. In sharp contrast, Bazoum didn’t placate the Nigerien opposition. Basking in international endorsement he grossly underestimated the local backlash.

What is the moral here for President Tinubu?

Second, no coup takes place anywhere in Francophone Africa without French endorsement. Or negligence.

On April 15, 1974, French technicians deliberately left on a weekend trip, thus leaving Niger’s communications equipment available for use by Seyni Kountche, a one-time sergeant in the French Army to overthrow then-President Diori seamlessly. The erstwhile Nigerien leader fell out with his friends in Paris when he openly voiced out his disaffection with the low level of French investment in Uranium production in Arlit, Agadez when President Georges Pompidou of France in 1972 was on a state visit to Niger.

 Interestingly, Pompidou who came into power in June 1969 stopped the official support to Biafra signing an agreement with General Gowon that guaranteed after the end of the Nigerian Civil War, French investments in Nigeria would not suffer.

By 1974, French trade with Nigeria had quadrupled from near zero. So much for the European country that the Balewa government in January 1961 gave 48 hours to close its embassy and pack out of Nigeria banning all French aircraft and ships from calling at any of our ports till 1965.

Third, no doubt, a reformer with altruistic intentions, Bazoum must have had his sights on military transformation also. By training and inclination soldiers are like sharks. Fast and deadly. They probably moved before he moved in on them.

Former President Buhari as far back as March 20, 2002, in an interview he granted to Antony Goldman in Kaduna, “He (Babangida) was head of the armored corps, he could move.”

While Omoigui adds, “A palace coup is one in which the sudden and decisive change of government illegally or by force is carried out by individuals in positions of authority who are themselves part and parcel of the ruling regime. Palace coups have occurred since antiquity.”

Yet, “Being a President is like riding a tiger. Keep on riding or be swallowed. A President is either constantly on top of events or events will soon be on top of him.” – Harry S. Truman, 33rd US President in office 1945-53

To be continued…..

By Ahmed Yahaya-Joe