The possible main beneficiary of the ongoing crisis between Nyesom Wike and Sim Fubara in Rivers State appears to be Bola Tinubu.
Tinubu has long been aware of the tensions in Rivers State and seems intent on allowing them to persist.
Here’s why I believe this:
Tinubu has been a significant figure in Rivers politics since the days of Chibuike Amaechi. Observing the pattern, every Rivers governor from Dr. Peter Odili to Amaechi and Wike has played a crucial role on the national stage, with ambitions extending to the presidency.
When Amaechi left the PDP for the APC in 2014, partly financing Buhari’s 2015 campaign, his goal was to forge a national alliance for a presidential run in 2023, rather than due to any real fallout with Goodluck Jonathan, which seemed more like a smokescreen for his national ambitions.
Aware of Amaechi’s potential threat to his own 2023 ambitions, Tinubu made sure Amaechi did not produce a sitting governor in Rivers. He quietly supported Wike in 2015 and again in 2019, circumventing Amaechi’s federal influence.
In Lagos, before 2019, Governor Akinwunmi Ambode showed reluctance to open up state funds for Tinubu’s 2023 presidential aspirations, challenging Tinubu’s demands. Consequently, Tinubu replaced him with Babajide Sanwo-Olu, who he could control more directly.
With Amaechi unable to secure a gubernatorial ally in Rivers, and Tinubu solidifying his control in Lagos, Amaechi’s resources were limited, diminishing his threat to Tinubu in the 2023 elections.
Genesis of Wike and Atiku’s Beef
Fast forward to the friction between Wike and Atiku; while Wike publicly criticized Atiku, he reportedly maintained a pact with Tinubu. Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State, part of the G5 alliance, seemingly played along with Wike to ensure his support for Tinubu, which contributed to Makinde’s smooth election in his state.
Wike and Sim Fubara’s Tussle
I believe Tinubu may be subtly fueling the crisis between Wike and Fubara for his future benefit. Given Wike’s unpredictable nature, the ongoing crisis prevents him from consolidating power, keeping him in check. This strategy ensures Fubara remains at odds with Wike, allowing Tinubu to broker a deal with Fubara to secure his loyalty and prevent any potential impeachment. This arrangement would keep the state’s resources out of Wike’s reach and diminish his influence over time, leaving no one in Rivers financially capable of challenging Tinubu by 2027.
Fubara’s recent actions, including his bold stance against Wike-loyal Assembly members and collaboration with the police following judicial decisions in his favor, suggest a shift underpinned by higher-level directives.
Those who are quick to involve Tinubu in this dispute, particularly Wike’s supporters, might underestimate his political acumen and ability to maximize benefits from every crisis.
This analysis is not for those who think in straight lines; it is meant for those who can anticipate events based on past behaviors and understand potential outcomes. So before reacting, take a moment to think critically and read between the lines.
Thank you.
Duruebube Chima Nnadi-Oforgu
OBLONG MEDIA UNLIMITED 
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