The political turbulence in Rivers State, which now sees Governor Siminalayi Fubara at its epicenter, is not a sudden development. Rather, it is the outcome of years of internal mismanagement within the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), compounded by regional and national miscalculations. What we see today is a crisis that has been long in the making, set into motion after the PDP’s colossal loss in the 2015 presidential election, when incumbent Goodluck Jonathan was defeated by Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressive Congress (APC).
Despite the widespread discourse suggesting that the crisis is solely due to local issues in Rivers State, a closer look reveals that the seeds of this conflict were sown well beyond the state’s borders. Political pundits and legal experts have over-simplified the situation, suggesting that a few conversations between key political actors could resolve the crisis. However, this view is naive and ignores the complex roots of the current impasse.
The Genesis: PDP’s Crisis of Leadership
The true origins of Rivers State’s political instability trace back to July 2017, following the PDP’s defeat in 2015. At that time, the PDP faced an existential crisis, largely due to its decision to appoint former Borno State Governor Ali Modu Sheriff as its acting national chairman. This move was a strategic miscalculation. Sheriff, once a figure in the opposition All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), quickly became a controversial and divisive figure within the PDP. His appointment led to internal struggles that culminated in two parallel national conventions held in Abuja and Port Harcourt.
The convention in Port Harcourt, backed by the majority of the party’s leadership, saw the emergence of a caretaker committee led by Senator Ahmed Makarfi. However, Sheriff rejected this outcome, leading to a series of legal battles that went all the way to Nigeria’s Supreme Court. The court eventually ruled in favor of Makarfi, stabilizing the party temporarily, but the damage was done. The internal divisions created during this period laid the groundwork for future conflicts, particularly in PDP-controlled states like Rivers.
The Wike Factor: Rise of an Influential Power Broker
A pivotal player in the survival of the PDP during this turbulent period was Nyesom Wike, the then-governor of Rivers State. Wike, alongside Ayodele Fayose of Ekiti State and Makarfi, played a crucial role in funding the party’s legal battles and supporting its operations when the party was on the verge of collapse. Wike’s financial contributions gave him immense influence within the PDP. He was instrumental in keeping the party afloat, paying legal fees, staff salaries, and funding its activities in states without PDP governors. This unprecedented influence allowed Wike to become the de facto leader of the party, with the power to shape major decisions.
As the saying goes, “He who pays the piper calls the tune.” Wike’s control over the PDP became so significant that many key decisions were either initiated or approved by him. This level of influence made him indispensable, but it also planted the seeds for future power struggles. His dominance within the party led to friction with other party elites, many of whom resented the consolidation of power around a single figure.
2015 Elections and Beyond: The Defection Crisis
To understand the current crisis in Rivers State, one must also look back to the lead-up to the 2015 elections, when former President Olusegun Obasanjo publicly resigned from the PDP. His dramatic exit, which included the symbolic tearing of his party membership card, signaled a deepening crisis within the party. Shortly after, Atiku Abubakar, former vice president and a prominent PDP figure, defected to the APC, citing dissatisfaction with the party’s leadership and its failure to honor agreements regarding power rotation.
Atiku’s defection was a significant blow to the PDP. Not only had he been one of the party’s most influential members, but his departure further destabilized the PDP’s northern power base. This exodus of key figures created a leadership vacuum within the party, further empowering individuals like Wike who had remained loyal.
The Present Crisis: A Power Struggle Years in the Making
Today, the political crisis in Rivers State is a direct consequence of the years of internal wrangling and mismanagement within the PDP. Governor Fubara is simply the latest victim of these long-standing issues. The conflicts between different factions within the PDP, coupled with the personal ambitions of key figures, have made it nearly impossible to establish a stable political environment in the state.
The idea that this crisis can be resolved before the 2027 elections is optimistic but unlikely. The problems are deeply entrenched and have become a political conundrum that will require more than just legal fixes or peace talks among political leaders. The people of Rivers State, unfortunately, bear the brunt of a problem that was created at the national level.
Conclusion: What Lies Ahead for Rivers State and the PDP?
As the PDP continues to grapple with its internal challenges, Rivers State remains caught in the crossfire. The next few years leading up to the 2027 elections will be critical. Without significant reforms and a shift in how the party is managed, the PDP risks not only losing its grip on Rivers State but also being relegated to the dustbin of Nigerian political history.
In the next episode of this exposé, we will delve deeper into the roots of the political crisis in Rivers State and explore potential paths to resolution. Only by understanding the complex history of this conflict can we begin to chart a course toward stability and peace.
By Capt. Bish Johnson (Rtd.)
Capt. Bish Johnson is a retired U.S. Army officer, political analyst, and military strategist. He writes from his rural community in Egbema, Imo State.
Edited by Oblong Media
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