The political rift between President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and former President Muhammadu Buhari appears to have escalated significantly, prompting Yoruba leaders to intervene in an effort to restore harmony. On December 11, Adeyeye Enitan Ogunwusi, the Ooni of Ife, paid a high-profile visit to Buhari in Daura, Katsina State. This visit was reportedly followed by discreet engagements involving other prominent South-West figures aiming to mediate peace between the two camps.
The Root of the Rift
According to close sources, the fallout centers on President Tinubu’s policies, which are perceived by the North as detrimental to their interests. These include controversial tax reform bills currently before the National Assembly. Buhari, reportedly disillusioned with Tinubu’s governance style, has allegedly criticized the administration in private gatherings, suggesting that his supporters may need to back an alternative candidate in the 2027 elections.
Former First Lady Aisha Buhari, who was instrumental in convincing her husband to support Tinubu’s presidential ambition, is said to have joined the growing ranks of those disenchanted with the current administration. Sources close to the former First Lady reveal that her efforts to secure strategic appointments for her allies have been unsuccessful, leading to feelings of betrayal.
Tinubu’s “Anti-North” Policies
The Northern establishment, including governors and political elites, has expressed discontent with Tinubu’s governance approach, which they view as favoring the South. Key political figures, including former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and ex-governors Nasir El-Rufai (Kaduna) and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso (Kano), have reportedly held strategic meetings aimed at forging a united northern front to challenge Tinubu in 2027. The introduction of the tax reform bills appears to have been the final straw, further straining relationships between Tinubu and northern stakeholders.
One northern political analyst described Tinubu’s administration as “deliberately sidelining the North while consolidating power in the South-West.” The relocation of critical government positions, including security and economic appointments, to the South-West has intensified tensions.
Aisha Buhari’s Role in the Crisis
Aisha Buhari’s involvement in Tinubu’s ascent to power has become a focal point in the unfolding drama. She reportedly lobbied for her brother, Halilu Ahmad, to be appointed as FCT Minister, a promise that went unfulfilled. Disappointed by unkept promises and a lack of recognition, Mrs. Buhari has allegedly vowed to work against Tinubu’s reelection bid.
Journalist Jackson Ude revealed that Mrs. Buhari has quietly returned to Daura to regroup with her husband, expressing regret over her support for Tinubu. According to Ude, the former First Lady feels “scammed” by the administration and has resolved to back alternative political alignments in 2027.
Growing Northern Opposition
The 2023 presidential election exposed significant fractures within the northern political bloc. While Tinubu relied on northern votes to secure victory, recent developments suggest that the region is no longer united in its support. Northern influencers, who previously supported Tinubu, have turned against him, citing unmet expectations and growing economic hardship. Insecurity, banditry, and poverty continue to plague the region, further fueling dissatisfaction with the Tinubu administration.
Shehu Sani, a former senator, has warned that northern political realignments could jeopardize Tinubu’s reelection prospects. “There is evidence of a rallying of forces in the North to challenge Tinubu’s administration,” Sani remarked, emphasizing that northern leaders are positioning themselves for a political showdown in 2027.
Potential 2027 Contenders
Former President Goodluck Jonathan has emerged as a potential compromise candidate capable of uniting southern and northern interests. Jonathan’s perceived humility and one-term eligibility make him an attractive option for stakeholders seeking to transition power to the North by 2031. However, Jonathan’s willingness to re-enter the political fray remains uncertain, as some analysts argue that his non-confrontational nature may deter him from challenging Tinubu.
Another scenario being floated is a joint ticket featuring Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar. However, political observers believe that neither Obi nor Atiku would be willing to play second fiddle to the other, making this alignment unlikely.
Tinubu’s Response and South-West Consolidation
Despite the growing opposition, Tinubu has moved swiftly to consolidate his hold on the South-West. His administration has strategically placed South-West natives in critical government positions, a move that has strengthened his base in the region. Observers note that for the first time in decades, the South-West feels a tangible sense of political power, which Tinubu is leveraging to counterbalance northern discontent.
Prominent South-West politicians who initially opposed Tinubu’s presidential ambition, such as Olabode George and Doyin Okupe, have since reconciled with him, signaling a unified regional front. Analysts believe this consolidation will serve as a critical asset for Tinubu as he prepares for the 2027 elections.
A Divided North
The once-cohesive northern political bloc now appears fragmented. Internal divisions, compounded by insecurity and economic challenges, have weakened the region’s ability to act as a unified force. This disunity could undermine efforts to unseat Tinubu, especially given his financial resources and incumbency advantages.
However, Tinubu’s decision to run a Muslim-Muslim ticket in 2023 alienated northern Christians, further complicating his prospects for reelection. The North’s grievances, coupled with Tinubu’s polarizing governance style, suggest that the 2027 elections could be one of Nigeria’s most contentious.
Conclusion
As the political landscape heats up, the stakes for 2027 could not be higher. The growing rift between Tinubu and Buhari underscores the challenges of maintaining unity within Nigeria’s complex political alliances. Whether Tinubu can navigate these turbulent waters and secure a second term remains uncertain, but the unfolding drama promises to reshape the country’s political trajectory in profound ways.
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