As Nigeria prepares for a long-overdue population and housing census almost two decades after the last exercise in 2006, there is widespread acknowledgment of the importance of such an endeavor. The benefits of accurate demographic data for national planning, economic development, healthcare delivery, and education cannot be overstated. However, while the need for a credible census is undeniable, it is equally important to ensure that the process is not undermined by political bias or sectional interests. The current composition of the Presidential Committee on Population and Housing Census raises concerns that must be addressed for the exercise to succeed.
The committee, as presently constituted, comprises largely of government officials, ministers, heads of agencies, and presidential aides. This closed, bureaucratic approach is unsuitable for a process as sensitive and historically controversial as the Nigerian census. Census exercises in Nigeria are not just statistical exercises; they are deeply political, with long-term implications for federal allocations, electoral representation, local government creation, and even the composition of the national legislature. Leaving this process in the hands of government insiders does not reflect the federal character of the nation and may undermine public confidence in the outcome.
There is an urgent need for the committee to be restructured to reflect Nigeria’s diversity and the principle of federal character. It must include not only government technocrats but also independent professionals from all walks of life: statisticians, demographers, civil society leaders, representatives from traditional institutions, the diaspora community, religious leaders, youth, and academics. These stakeholders must come from all six geopolitical zones, ensuring broad-based legitimacy and national buy-in. A truly inclusive committee will guarantee transparency, strengthen credibility, and reduce the risk of manipulation.
Nigeria’s census history is littered with inconsistencies and political interference. The 1962 census was cancelled due to manipulation allegations. The 1963 exercise, which placed Nigeria’s population at 55.6 million, was rejected by the Eastern Region and widely discredited. The 1973 census was annulled over widespread irregularities. In 1991, the population was estimated at 88.9 million, a figure contested by several regions. The 2006 census, which recorded 140.4 million Nigerians, 71.3 million males and 69 million females, was riddled with criticism, especially due to the absence of data on religion and ethnicity. That census gave 53% of the population to the North, a figure that many scholars, southern leaders, and international observers questioned, considering glaring discrepancies in infrastructure, school enrollment, and voter registration data.
One of the most damaging consequences of these flawed censuses is the solidification of the myth that the North is significantly more populated than the South. This myth has been used to justify disproportionate federal allocations, legislative representation, and local government creation in favor of the North. Yet, empirical data, including school enrollment, health statistics, voter registration, urban population density, and internally generated revenue, often tell a different story. The South consistently leads in education, productivity, urbanization, and economic output. The rapid growth of southern cities like Lagos, Port Harcourt, Aba, and Enugu indicates a much larger population than census figures suggest.
The myth of northern population dominance has shaped Nigeria’s political psychology for decades. It has been instrumentalized to entrench an uneven power structure that unfairly favors certain regions over others. A credible and technologically driven census provides an opportunity to debunk this myth once and for all. It offers a chance to correct the structural imbalances that have plagued Nigeria’s governance architecture since independence.
A fair and accurate census is also essential for restructuring Nigeria. Without reliable data, no meaningful restructuring can occur. The number of local governments, the distribution of resources, representation in the National Assembly, and the delineation of federal constituencies must all be based on verifiable population figures. A fraudulent census perpetuates a fraudulent federation. Restructuring begins with counting every Nigerian fairly and accurately.
This is why President Tinubu’s effort, while commendable, must be improved upon. He must demonstrate statesmanship by reconstituting the committee to ensure broad representation and independence. He must also guarantee that the entire census process is transparent, verifiable, and digitally driven, utilizing biometrics and geospatial technology to prevent duplication, inflation, and omission. Technology alone will not solve the problem; the integrity of the process depends on the people managing it.
The stakes are too high for another flawed census. This is not just about counting heads. It is about justice. It is about ensuring that every Nigerian is seen, heard, and counted. It is about using data as a foundation for nation-building and equitable development. It is about dismantling the myths and lies that have fed inequality and tension in our federation. It is about laying the groundwork for a restructured Nigeria where truth, not sentiment, determines how we live, work, and govern.
Support the census, but demand a committee that reflects the Nigeria we hope to build: inclusive, honest, fair, and driven by a collective vision of national rebirth. The census must not be a tool to reinforce old lies. It must be a springboard into a future of truth and justice.
By Hon. Chima Nnadi-Oforgu
Duruebube Uzii na Abosi
OBLONG MEDIA UNLIMITED 
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