Tinubu’s Political Fortress Crumbles as Opposition Unites Ahead of 2027.
Barely a month ago, Nigerian President Bola Tinubu seemed firmly in control of his political destiny. As he marked two years in power with his characteristic boasts about fulfilled campaign promises, confidence radiated from his inner circle. Tinubu, often described as the “wiliest politician of his generation,” appeared to have the 2027 election firmly in his grasp. The opposition was in disarray, weakened by a gale of defections from a once-formidable People’s Democratic Party that had been touted as Africa’s largest political force. Among political insiders in Abuja, the belief was strong that Tinubu’s re-election was all but assured and that serious political calculations should instead focus on 2031.
That sense of inevitability has since evaporated. A resurgent opposition, after months of clandestine negotiations, has agreed to rally under the banner of the African Democratic Congress. The ADC, traditionally a minor party, has suddenly become the vehicle for Nigeria’s most prominent opposition figures, including former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi, Former Senate President David Mark has been tapped to serve as interim chairman as the coalition attempts to present a united front against the APC. This alliance, if sustained, mirrors the strategy that once unseated the PDP in 2015 and has already sparked renewed optimism among those who see Tinubu as vulnerable.
Tinubu’s government has reacted with a mixture of defiance and urgency. The APC has formally endorsed him as its sole candidate for 2027, projecting confidence and touting his bold reforms, particularly the removal of fuel subsidies and currency liberalization. Yet beneath the surface, there are signs of unease. Influential northern powerbrokers remain divided over Tinubu’s candidacy, and the opposition’s sudden momentum has forced the presidency to roll out new agricultural and food security initiatives, widely interpreted as attempts to shore up support in a restive populace grappling with rising food prices.
The president’s record remains a major stumbling block. Despite international praise from institutions such as the IMF and World Bank for his market-oriented reforms, the mood within Nigeria is grim. Poverty is deepening, with over 75 percent of rural dwellers and more than 40 percent of urban residents living below the poverty line. Insecurity continues to plague the nation, with jihadist attacks, mass kidnappings, and banditry leaving more than ten thousand people dead in the past two years alone. Nigeria has now risen to sixth place on the Global Terrorism Index, trailing only Burkina Faso, Pakistan, Syria, Mali, and Niger.
Beyond the economy and insecurity, Tinubu’s administration is increasingly dogged by allegations of blatant nepotism and ethnic favoritism. The recent appointment of 16 new directors at the Central Bank of Nigeria drew widespread criticism after it emerged that ten of them were Yoruba, three Hausa, and only three Igbo. This pattern has reinforced perceptions that Tinubu is consolidating power within his ethnic base rather than fostering a truly inclusive government. Similar accusations have trailed key appointments in strategic agencies such as the Federal Inland Revenue Service, the Nigerian Ports Authority, and several lucrative parastatals, where many top positions have gone to individuals from the South-West or long-time political loyalists. These actions have alienated many Nigerians, particularly in the South-East and parts of the North, who view Tinubu’s government as an ethnically skewed patronage system rather than a merit-based administration.
Tinubu has also courted controversy with decisions that raise questions about his democratic credentials. In March 2025, he declared a state of emergency in Rivers State, suspending the elected governor and legislature while installing retired Admiral Ibok Ekwe Ibas as administrator. Several PDP-led states have challenged the move in court as unconstitutional, painting Tinubu as willing to stretch executive power to maintain control. Similarly, his highly publicized posthumous pardon of the Ogoni Nine on June 12 drew mixed reactions, celebrated by some as a symbolic act of justice but condemned by activists as a hollow gesture that sidestepped deeper issues of accountability in the Niger Delta.
These political vulnerabilities have provided an opening for Nasir El-Rufai, former Kaduna State Governor and once a close ally of Tinubu. El-Rufai, widely believed to have been betrayed after being denied a promised ministerial portfolio, has emerged as a key powerbroker in the opposition’s reawakening. At sixty-five, he has ample time to position himself for a presidential run in 2031 while playing the role of spoiler in 2027. His involvement has added strategic weight to the ADC coalition and intensified APC’s fears of defections from its northern base.
Despite the opposition’s newfound momentum, serious obstacles remain. Atiku, who will be eighty-one in 2027, faces mounting pressure to relinquish his final shot at the presidency. Convincing Obi’s passionate youth base, the “Obidients,” to support a ticket that may place their preferred candidate in a secondary role will not be easy. Many southerners remain wary of rotating power back to the North so soon after Tinubu’s term, while Obi himself must contend with a lingering popularity deficit across core northern states. The ADC’s internal contradictions, regional rivalries, generational divides, and conflicting ambitions, may yet, but unlikely, undo its plans before they gather full steam.
Yet to dismiss the coalition outright would be premature. Nigerian politics has a long history of sudden realignments, defections, and betrayals. Even Tinubu, despite his storied political acumen, faces an electorate increasingly disillusioned by hardship, insecurity, nepotism, and perceived authoritarian overreach. While incumbency remains a powerful advantage, as evidenced by Muhammadu Buhari’s re-election despite lackluster performance, Tinubu’s hold on power is no longer guaranteed.
The next two years will determine whether the opposition can overcome its internal fissures to present a credible alternative, or whether Tinubu can navigate Nigeria’s deepening crises to secure a second term. What once looked like a smooth path to re-election has become a battleground of shifting alliances, voter frustration, and growing resentment over blatant cronyism. For the first time since taking office, Tinubu’s political destiny no longer looks entirely secure, and the 2027 election promises to be one of Nigeria’s most fiercely contested in recent history.
By Chimazuru Nnadi-Oforgu
“Duruebube Uzii na Abosi”
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