A PhD candidate fixated on the date of convocation, yet unwilling to engage in the foundational work—research, publications, and academic rigour—is likely to resort to unwholesome shortcuts to obtain the certificate. This analogy aptly captures our current obsession with achieving a $1 trillion economy in Nigeria.
Setting ambitious targets without laying the groundwork invites manipulation: rebasing, statistical adjustments, and even data distortion become tools to manufacture success. But economic transformation is not a ceremonial milestone—it is the outcome of deliberate, sustained effort across critical sectors.
The Untouched Foundations of Growth
Despite the rhetoric, the pillars that could genuinely support a $1 trillion economy in Nigeria remain neglected:
Rule of Law: Recent events involving Kwam1 and Kwam2 underscore the absence of equal application of the law in Nigeria. No nation has achieved sustainable development without a robust legal framework that ensures fairness and accountability.
Power Supply: Qatar, with a population of 3 million, generates 8,000 megawatts of public electricity. Nigeria, with over 240 million people, struggles to produce 5,000 megawatts. Globally, the benchmark is roughly 1,000 megawatts per 1 million people. Our energy poverty is incompatible with economic growth. No nation in history has developed with such levels of energy poverty!
Steel Production: We lack a functional steel industry— an essential driver of industrialisation and infrastructure. It means we import everything that has iron or steel content!
Gas Flaring: We continue to waste valuable energy resources through flaring, undermining both environmental and economic goals.
Agriculture: Our agricultural sector remains largely subsistent and under-mechanised, unable to meet domestic or export demands. The little we produced has come under the hammer of banditry.
Refineries: NNPCL-managed refineries continue to produce zero products, leaving us dependent on Dangote Refinery, a dominant monopoly, making us vulnerable to unfair pricing shocks.
Tourism: Insecurity and poor infrastructure have stifled tourism, a potential $100bn revenue industry, and a job creation engine.
Rail Connectivity: Thirty-five states remain unconnected to the federal capital by rail, limiting mobility, trade, and integration.
Beyond GDP: A Call for Real Progress
Without addressing these structural deficiencies, we may one day wake up to a rebased GDP of $1 trillion— on paper —while the majority of our population remains impoverished, and our Human Development Index (HDI) ranks among the lowest globally.
Rather than chasing statistical milestones, we should focus on the hard work of building a resilient economy: creating jobs, improving infrastructure, enforcing the rule of law, and delivering prosperity to all. Even if the economy doesn’t hit the trillion-dollar mark, genuine progress will speak louder than numbers ever could.
It’s sad that country as vast and resourceful as Nigeria, chasing a trillion dollar economy, very basic infrastructure like an effective unified emergency number (999) for citizens to call for an ambulance, fire service, or police is not in place. Even smaller African nations have it.
The other side of a robust emergency response system is the massive job creation it makes possible. Imagine deploying trained paramedics across every corner of Nigeria, equipped to reach emergencies within minutes—24/7! That alone would generate thousands of skilled jobs, from frontline responders to dispatch operators and logistics personnel. Extend that same model to fire services and police, and you’re looking at a nationwide employment ecosystem that not only saves lives but also stimulates local economies, builds professional capacity, and restores public trust in institutions.
A trillion-dollar economy must stand on pillars!
It’s time our leaders recognised that the path to a trillion-dollar economy runs through the basics: building systems that work, creating jobs that matter, and giving every Nigerian the best chance at living a meaningful life, regardless of social status!
Nick Agule is a Nigerian and a public affairs analyst passionate about the development of Nigeria.
Nick Agule
Email: nick.agule@yahoo.co.uk
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