Only a few months ago, Bola Ahmed Tinubu seemed untouchable. As he basked in the glow of his second year in office, boasting of reforms and consolidating power, the prevailing mood among his allies was that the path to 2027 was clear. The opposition was fractured, the PDP was hemorrhaging members, and his party, the APC, looked more dominant than ever. To many in Abuja, the real question was not 2027 but 2031.
Yet politics is never static. The same opposition once written off has found fresh life. Old rivals and recent adversaries are stitching together an alliance under the umbrella of the African Democratic Congress, breathing hope into what once looked like a hollow resistance. The PDP, too, seems to have found its voice. Tinubu’s government, sensing the tremor beneath its feet, has suddenly shifted tone, with lofty declarations about food sovereignty and agriculture sounding more like reactionary panic than coherent policy. What was once an aura of invincibility now shows cracks.
The new opposition bloc looks formidable on paper. A coalition of Atiku Abubakar, who polled twenty-nine percent in 2023, and Peter Obi, who reportedly secured twenty-five percent but is widely believed by many Nigerians to have actually won the election before being rigged out, could theoretically outgun Tinubu’s thirty-seven percent. But politics is rarely about arithmetic alone. Atiku, who will be eighty-one in 2027, has pursued the presidency with relentless tenacity for over three decades. Can he be persuaded to let go of his last realistic shot? And Obi, the darling of the Obidients, must reconcile his youthful movement with the idea of subordinating himself to a man he once rejected. Would his base, fiercely anti-establishment and southern-leaning, accept a ticket that hands power back to the north so soon after Buhari?
Even if Obi and Atiku manage to resolve their personal ambitions, they face a deeper problem: the enduring mistrust of regional blocs. Obi still faces skepticism in the core north, while Atiku’s candidacy could alienate southern voters eager to retain power. The opposition’s greatest weakness remains what has always haunted it, an inability to transcend personal ambition in pursuit of collective victory.
And then there is the wildcard, Nasir El-Rufai. Once a key player in Tinubu’s emergence, El-Rufai now nurses deep resentment after being denied a plum role in Tinubu’s cabinet. At sixty-five, he has both the time and appetite to play spoiler in 2027, positioning himself for 2031. His influence, resources, and political cunning make him a dangerous factor in this coalition. While not its sole architect, his fingerprints are visible in the sudden reawakening of opposition strategy.
Tinubu, meanwhile, is weighed down by the twin burdens of insecurity and economic hardship. His so-called “shock therapy” may have won praise from international financial institutions, but ordinary Nigerians remain mired in despair. Poverty stalks three-quarters of rural dwellers and nearly half of the urban population. Kidnappings, jihadist violence, and criminal attacks persist unchecked, with Amnesty International reporting over ten thousand deaths since he took office. Nigeria now ranks sixth on the Global Terrorism Index, trailing war-torn nations like Syria and Mali.
Still, it would be rash to write Tinubu off. Nigerian politics has a way of defying logic. Buhari’s own dismal midterm record did not stop him from winning re-election in 2019. Incumbency carries enormous weight: access to state machinery, patronage networks, and the levers of coercion. Two years remain before the polls, ample time for alliances to fracture, enemies to become allies, and calculations to change.
What is clear is that the aura of inevitability surrounding Tinubu has been shattered. The battle for 2027 is no longer a coronation march; it is a contest of survival. For Tinubu, the storm is gathering. For the opposition, opportunity and peril lie in equal measure. Nigeria, as always, is watching.
By Chimazuru Oblong Nnadi-Oforgu
OBLONG MEDIA UNLIMITED 
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