There is palpable anxiety within opposition ranks over a chilling possibility, that the 2027 general election may once again be handed to the ruling APC on a platter, not because of superior strategy or governance, but because of the opposition’s chronic disunity, ego battles, and unending internal crises.
The sense within the opposition camp is that unless key figures bury personal ambition and rally under a single, credible candidate, history will repeat itself. The fear is real, and justified. The same fractured approach that gifted Bola Ahmed Tinubu a narrow but decisive victory in 2023 seems to be replaying itself in slow motion.
Let’s be clear: the APC is not the undefeatable behemoth it once was. The country is bleeding economically; Nigerians are groaning under the weight of inflation, insecurity, and policy confusion. The atmosphere is ripe for a political upset. Yet, the opposition seems trapped in a cycle of ego, betrayal, and miscalculation.
In 2023, the numbers told a story of opportunity wasted. Tinubu, according to INEC’s official declaration, polled 8,794,726 votes. Atiku Abubakar followed with 6,984,520, while Peter Obi, whose supporters insist was massively rigged out, garnered 6,101,533. Rabiu Kwankwaso came distant fourth with 1,496,687 votes. Collectively, the opposition outnumbered Tinubu’s total by millions, yet division turned victory into defeat.
Ahead of 2027, the field appears set for a replay. Tinubu already has the APC ticket practically sealed. The opposition, on the other hand, remains a patchwork of ambition, Atiku, Obi, Amaechi, Olawepo-Hashim, and whispers of Goodluck Jonathan’s possible return. Each sees himself as the nation’s redeemer; none yet seems ready to concede for the greater good.
The PDP remains entangled in the same web of dysfunction that cost it power in 2015. Two governors and several lawmakers have defected. The party’s once-formidable machinery is now riddled with cracks, factional loyalties, and Wike’s lingering shadow. Even the coming national convention may deepen rather than heal the wounds. Prof. Jerry Gana’s calls for Jonathan or Obi to return have been met with stiff internal resistance, while Olawepo-Hashim insists on open primaries. Meanwhile, Wike’s bloc has tactically pledged allegiance to Tinubu, a political treachery dressed as pragmatism.
The Labour Party is faring no better. What was once the symbol of a new political awakening is now riddled with leadership squabbles. Julius Abure’s camp fights for legitimacy while Esther Nenadi Usman’s faction, backed by Obi and Abia’s Governor Alex Otti, digs in. Even Datti Baba-Ahmed’s recent reconciliation efforts have faltered.
The NNPP has its own demons, split down the middle after the Kano triumph, while the SDP, once projected as a credible ideological alternative, is drowning in internal suspensions and factional disputes. The newly registered ADA, designed as a possible fallback coalition vehicle, is yet to prove it can rise above being another alphabetic footnote in Nigeria’s crowded party space.
At this rate, 2027 risks being another three-horse race, Tinubu, Atiku, and Obi, each representing fragmented coalitions of personal ambition rather than a unified national purpose. The opposition’s refusal to coalesce around a single, credible candidate could once again hand Tinubu an easier victory, even amid public anger and economic despair.
The tragedy here is that Nigerians are not blind to the failures of this administration. But they are equally unimpressed by opposition disarray. The electorate is more discerning now. Nigerians will no longer vote simply because a coalition exists; they will vote for credibility, competence, and trust.
No coalition built on ego and opportunism can survive the heat of a presidential race. A viable opposition must inspire confidence, not confusion. It must present a clear national vision, not a scramble for tickets and structures. The challenge is not merely to unseat Tinubu, but to offer Nigerians a believable alternative.
As I see it, the PDP today is a house without a roof, broken, regionalized, and gasping for relevance. Its northern base has eroded, its southern blocs are splintered, and its leadership, timid. The ADC, which once promised a fresh alternative, has failed to sell itself as a credible national movement. The Labour Party, still struggling to institutionalize its “Obidient” energy, risks becoming another fleeting wave if it doesn’t put its house in order.
The truth is uncomfortable but necessary: the opposition is not yet ready. They are united only in grievances, but divided in ambition. What should be a national rescue mission has turned into a chaotic jostle for power among men who refuse to learn from history.
If 2023 taught us anything, it is that divided opposition hands victory to the incumbent, no matter how unpopular he is. Unless the opposition sheds ego and builds a coalition rooted in ideology, vision, and national consensus, Tinubu’s re-election in 2027 may not require the rigging machine to work overtime.
Voters will not be swayed by slogans or recycled alliances. They will vote for credibility, relatability, and proven integrity. The candidate who listens, understands, and connects with the people’s pain will carry the day. Credentials, moral standing, and a clear roadmap for economic recovery and justice will count more than party colours.
Coalitions can help, yes, but they are not the magic wand. The basis for political victory has shifted towards individual accountability and public trust. Nigerians are not waiting for parties to rescue them; they are waiting for leadership to emerge from the fog of ego and ambition.
The opposition must decide what it truly wants, power or purpose. Until then, 2027 may be another déjà vu: a fractured opposition handing victory once again to the same establishment it claims to fight.
Duruebube ‘Oblong’ Chimazuru Nnadi-Oforgu
OBLONG MEDIA UNLIMITED 
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