Why the World Is Alarmed, Why the Center Can No Longer Hold, and Why National Re-negotiation Has Become Urgently Unavoidable.
There comes a moment in the life of every nation when reality refuses to be masked by propaganda, by the empty chants of “one Nigeria,” or by the forced optimism of a political class feeding fat on a dying system. Nigeria has reached that point.
Not because her citizens suddenly stopped loving their country, but because the structure they were forced into has been collapsing for decades.
Not because Nigerians are unwilling to coexist, but because those who insist on “unity at all costs” have weaponized that unity to loot, divide, manipulate, silence, and dominate.
Today, the world is watching a country unravel, and world powers are no longer pretending otherwise.
I. THE NIGERIAN EXPERIMENT HAS NEVER WORKED, AND THE DATA IS NO LONGER DEBATABLE
For over 60 years, every major human development index has consistently shown one thing: Nigeria is structurally incompatible with progress under its current arrangement.
- Poverty and Human Development
Nigeria holds the world’s largest population of people living in extreme poverty: over 89 million (World Bank, 2023).
HDI ranking: 163 out of 191 nations, below war-torn countries.
Youth unemployment: 53%.
Inflation: 33%, food inflation 40%, the worst in decades.
- Security Collapse
Since 2015, over 63,000 civilians have been killed by terrorists, bandits, herdsmen, separatist crackdowns, military mistakes, communal clashes, and criminal gangs (SBM Intelligence, ACLED).
Nigeria now ranks 8th most dangerous country on earth (Global Peace Index).
Over 5,000 people were kidnapped in 2024 alone, a global record.
- Education and Health Breakdown
Out-of-school children: 20.2 million, 300,000 in Katsina alone, the highest in the world.
One doctor to 6,400 Nigerians (WHO recommends 1:600).
Maternal mortality: 1,047 per 100,000 births, among the world’s worst.
- Governance and Corruption
Transparency International consistently ranks Nigeria among the bottom 15% most corrupt nations.
Over $600 billion estimated stolen since 1960.
Elections no longer guarantee change: INEC credibility is globally questioned, voter suppression normalized, judicial outcomes brazen.
These are not signs of a country in distress.
These are signs of a country at the end of its structural lifespan.
II. THE CABAL HOLDING NIGERIA TOGETHER IS DOING SO FOR SELF-PRESERVATION, NOT UNITY
Foreign observers, diplomatic missions, global think tanks, and intelligence agencies now privately admit that:
“Nigeria is held together by a narrow cabal whose survival depends on preserving a failing system.”
This cabal cuts across:
APC
PDP
Military oligarchs
Bureaucratic mafias
Oil cartel networks
Northern feudal interests
Southern political traders
They cannot reform Nigeria because their power depends on its dysfunction.
So they preach “unity”, not because the union works,
but because the collapse of the system means their collapse.
III. WHY THE WORLD IS SUDDENLY VERY INTERESTED IN NIGERIA
- Nigeria’s Rare Earth & Strategic Minerals
Foreign intelligence reports highlight over $700 billion worth of:
Lithium
Uranium
Gold
Coltan
Tantalite
Cobalt
Graphite
These are the new oil of the future.
Global powers are circling, quietly but aggressively.
A chaotic Nigeria is an opportunity.
A stable, restructured Nigeria is a threat, because Nigerians may finally negotiate fair contracts.
IV. ISLAMIST FUNDAMENTALISM & EXPANSIONIST AGENDAS ARE NO LONGER SPECULATION
From 2014 to date:
Boko Haram splinter groups now operate across 12 northern states.
ISWAP controls territories and collects taxes.
Armed herdsmen have destroyed over 50,000 farmlands since 2016.
Communities in Benue, Plateau, Niger, Kaduna, Taraba, and Zamfara have been depopulated.
The expansionist project is not hidden:
Fulani Nationality Movement (FUNAM) openly declared northern “ownership” of Nigeria.
Multiple governors demand settlement rights in ancestral lands of minorities.
The push for nationwide grazing routes was part of this larger agenda.
Silence from the center is not ignorance, it is complicity.
V. A GOVERNMENT THAT HAS LOST CONTROL
With less than 1.5 million uniformed personnel for 220 million people,
many untrained, unpaid, poorly equipped, Nigeria is ungovernable.
Evidence:
Bandits shoot down military aircraft.
Terrorists attack NDA Kaduna.
Kidnappers raid military barracks.
Civilians pay ransom while government postures at press conferences.
This is not governance.
This is a nation drifting on autopilot toward disaster.
VI. WHY NIGERIANS ARE LOSING FAITH, AND WHY DANGER IS IMMINENT
- Elections no longer offer hope.
People no longer believe:
INEC
Judiciary
Ruling elites
Police
Legislature
Governors
The social contract has collapsed.
- Poverty is weaponized.
When citizens are starving, desperate, and angry, any spark becomes a wildfire.
- The EndSARS invasion was a warning shot
For the first time in modern history,
the poor invaded the homes of the rich, not out of politics, but hunger and fury.
The next time will not be about palliatives or warehouses.
It will be about survival.
If a breakdown comes:
It will not be tribe vs tribe.
It will not be North vs South.
It will be rich vs poor.
People vs government.
System vs citizens.
And nobody with privilege will be safe.
VII. THE REAL QUESTION: MUST NIGERIA RE-NEGOTIATE ITS EXISTENCE?
Let us be clear:
No nation survives forced unity built on inequality, mistrust, ethnic hatred, religious extremism, and elite greed.
Every multi-ethnic state that survived did one thing:
They renegotiated their union.
Examples:
USSR
Czechoslovakia
Yugoslavia
Sudan
Ethiopia/Eritrea
Britain and Ireland
Canada and Quebec
Even the EU constantly renegotiates its treaties.
Nigeria alone believes that clinging to a failing structure is “patriotism.”
VIII. WHAT THE WORLD EXPECTS, AND WHAT NIGERIA MUST CONFRONT
Foreign powers are no longer asking if Nigeria will unravel.
They are asking:
“Will it happen peacefully, or violently?”
Nigeria is standing on a thin line.
The options are:
A renegotiated federal arrangement
A new constitution
A conference of nationalities
A restructured union with regional autonomy
OR an uncontrolled, violent implosion
There is no “status quo” option left.
The elites know it.
The world knows it.
Only the masses remain in denial, because of propaganda.
CONCLUSION: WE MUST CHOOSE REASON BEFORE REALITY CHOOSES FOR US
Nigeria is not dying.
Nigeria is already dead, only the funeral date remains unannounced.
The responsibility now falls on the people, the intelligentsia, civil society, religious leaders, traditional institutions, and the international community to insist on:
A peaceful renegotiation of the Nigerian union before the explosion comes.
The truth is simple:
A nation that cannot protect its citizens, educate its children, heal its sick, feed its people, secure its borders, or elect its leaders cannot be called a nation.
If we refuse to face this reality today,
we will face something far worse tomorrow.
And by then,
nobody, rich or poor, will escape the consequences.
By Hon. Chima Nnadi-Oforgu
Duruebube Uzii na Abosi
OBLONG MEDIA UNLIMITED 
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