Nigeria is not a country moved by emotions, wishes or entitlement. It is powered by strategy, timing and cold political arithmetic. Power goes to those who organize for it, not those who merely deserve it. Every region that has tasted the presidency understood this reality and acted accordingly. The Southeast is the only region still trying to negotiate destiny through sentiment while others negotiate through structure.
For Ndi Igbo the question today is no longer whether we deserve the presidency. That debate has been exhausted for decades. The real question is how and when can it be achieved. And whether we are willing to do what others have done to secure it. Because while we argue about equity and fairness, the rest of the country is already planning for 2027, 2031 and 2039.
The most dangerous delusion circulating in the Southeast today is the idea of supporting a Tinubu reelection in 2027. Anyone campaigning for Tinubu in the Southeast must answer one basic question: what exactly is on the table for Ndi Igbo going forward after his tenure? What is Tinubu promising us after we donate another four years of our future to complete a Yoruba presidential cycle.
Tinubu is not seeking four years for national unity. He is seeking it to complete an almost unbroken Yoruba hold on Aso Rock since 1999. Obasanjo had eight years as president. Osinbajo had eight years as vice president. Tinubu already has almost four as president and is angling for another four to make it twenty four years of Yoruba control at the summit of power. After that, the North takes over in 2031. And in 2031, the north will not hand over anything to Ndi Igbo. They will punish us for being naive. They will likely give the South South the vice presidency as strategic alignment. The North will then rule until 2039 and retires the South East down the queue by another eight years. At that point, who even guarantees that power returns to the South East in 2039. Who is ready to wait that long. Who is preparing for that era. Who will even still be alive politically.
This is why the APC pathway is a death sentence for Igbo aspiration. Tinubu finishes 2027 to 2031. North takes 2031 to 2039. South South will surely contest 2039 to 2047. The earliest permutation for Southeast presidency under APC becomes 2047 or 2055 depending on internal outcomes beyond our control and if Nigeria still remains a country. Twenty to twenty eight years of waiting. That is not conspiracy. That is arithmetic.
Some say equity demands that South East waits. But where was equity when the South West produced a president for eight years, a vice president for eight years, and then president again for eight years. Nobody paused for symmetry. It was strategy, alliances, and timing. Meanwhile the Southeast since 1960 has produced zero elected presidents, a one term vice president and yet is expected to continue playing loyal spectator for six decades. No serious nation survives this level of political unseriousness.
Meanwhile our politicians are pretending not to understand the game. They shout unity, peace, and national cohesion while negotiating personal deals. They are thinking about 2027 appointments and second terms, not Southeast destiny. They are chasing crumbs, not power. They are positioning their children, not their people. So the real question is this: are Ndi Igbo willing to continue following leaders who think only of themselves while our collective destiny is bartered away for a handshake and a position.
If we must be honest, we have two realistic options. The first is to produce a presidential candidate with a national coalition in 2027 even if the odds are long. Even if we try and fail, we shift the psychology of power and force negotiations. The second option is to enter the presidency through the vice presidency in 2027 on a structured one or two term agreement with handover guarantees. Anything outside these two options postpones our future by decades.
In this scenario, the ADC as far as I can see, presents the only realistic shortcut for Ndi Igbo. ADC is the only platform so far willing to place the Southeast at the center rather than at the periphery. Under ADC the Southeast can most likely produce a president immediately in 2027. Or produce a vice president on a four year transition. Or produce a vice president on an eight year transition. Zero years. Four years. Or eight years. These are short term political windows. They compress time. They reduce uncertainty. They insert Ndi Igbo back into the leadership equation of Nigeria.
Some will ask why does this matter. It matters because the Nigeria that will exist after 2031 is not the Nigeria that exists now. We are not even sure an election will take place in 2027. Nigeria is heading for restructuring one way or another. Either negotiated or by collapse. Whoever sits in Aso Rock at that moment will decide whether the Southeast emerges as a regional power or becomes a fragmented territory surrounded by enemies.
The tragic thing is that other groups already understand all of this. The Yoruba political class is not emotional. They think in cycles. The Northern political class is not sentimental. They think in alliances. The South South political class is not passive. They think in resources. Ndi Igbo are the only group still behaving as if moral arguments win presidencies.
Look at the pattern. From the Zik era to the military coups to the Shagari years to the Abacha transition to 1999 to 2015 to 2023, every major power bloc has aligned against Igbo presidential ambition at critical moments. It was never accidental. It was structural. Ndi Igbo are perceived as economically dominant, intellectually competitive and politically unpredictable. The Nigerian power elite prefers a president they can manage. The Igbo are not easy to manage. Again, not paranoia. Pattern.
Now the fork is in front of us. 2027 is not just an election. It is a once in a generation power window. If the Southeast misses it and gifts Tinubu another four years, the door closes for a generation. We will watch from the balcony while others divide power and resources. And by 2040, there may not be a Nigeria structured in our favor at all.
So I ask again: Ndi Igbo, are you awake or sleeping. Are we thinking as a people or just as individuals. Are we prepared to enter the future as power holders or continue as spectators.
History is giving us a small window. We either take it now or we spend the next fifty years telling our children why we failed.
By Hon. Chima Nnadi-Oforgu
Duruebube Uzii na Abosi
OBLONG MEDIA UNLIMITED 
Leave a comment