In the high-stakes theater of Nigerian politics, what appears to be a bitter rivalry is often a carefully choreographed dance.
As we approach the next electoral cycle, a compelling and increasingly credible assumption is taking hold. As a political Strategist, and based on my personal insight, the 2027 race is being shaped by a presumably secret understanding between President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar. This is not a merger of ideologies, but a cold, calculated “shadow pact” designed to preserve the status quo and neutralize the common threat: the disruptive candidacy of Peter Obi.
This disruptive grand Architect is President Tinubu, often described as a “political Maradona,” and a master of the preemptive strike. His primary concern is not a traditional challenge from the PDP, a party currently reeling from internal fractures. His true anxiety lies in the “Obidient” movement—a wild card that defies traditional patronage network.
To secure his second term, Tinubu needs a predictable opponent, someone who fits within the established political framework.
Atiku Abubakar, despite his perennial quest for the presidency, is a known hatched personality. My assumption suggests that Tinubu is prepared to offer Atiku a “golden bridge” to the future. This includes the possibility of a guaranteed, state-backed path to the presidency in 2031, after Tinubu completes his constitutional two terms. By offering a 2031 ticket, Tinubu effectively buys Atiku’s cooperation in 2027, turning a formidable rival into a strategic asset.
The most intriguing part of this permutation involves the African Democratic Congress (ADC). Rumours suggest that Tinubu might be the invisible hand sponsoring Atiku’s move to the ADC presidential primary. On the surface, this looks like Atiku seeking an alternative platform. In reality, it serves a dual purpose for the incumbent.
First, it creates a “controlled opposition.” If Atiku runs under the ADC, he pulls away the core remnants of the PDP followership, ensuring that the opposition remains fragmented and toothless bulldog.
Second, it positions Atiku as the “Northern alternative,” potentially cannibalizing votes that might otherwise gravitate toward a consolidated opposition bloc. For Tinubu, an ADC led by Atiku is a much safer bet than a unified front led by a younger, more radical reformer like Peter Obi.
However, this “Trojan Horse” strategy faces a massive hurdle, starting with internal betrayal. The ADC has its own internal dynamics, and stakeholders who may not be willing to sacrifice their party’s identity to serve a secret pact between two titans. If the ADC rank-and-file perceives that their platform has been sold to the highest bidder in the Presidential Villa, an internal implosion is inevitable.
Also, Atiku Abubakar is not a novice to the political zonal trap. He is acutely aware of the “zonal arrangement”, the unwritten rule that power should reside in the South for two consecutive terms (eight years). By seeking the presidency in 2027, Atiku is essentially asking the North to reclaim power after only four years, a move that risks alienating Southern allies and moderate Northerners who value national stability.
The game will be over if Atiku insists on being the ADC Presidential Candidate. It means that he has deliberately played right into Tinubu’s hands. Tinubu understands that a Northern candidate running against the “Southern turn” will definitely create a natural firewall for the APC in the South and Middle Belt.
By encouraging Atiku’s ambition, Tinubu ensures that the election is framed as a breach of the rotational principle, making Atiku’s path as greedily insensitive, while simultaneously painting Tinubu as the defender of the zonal agreement.
“In this chess game, Atiku may believe that he is playing for 2031, but Tinubu is making sure that Atiku loses 2027 in a dishonorable way that secures the APC’s dominance for decades to come.” – DSM.
This is the “Maradonic” Mastery Stroke that will confirm Tinubu’s prowess in the political “cheese game.”
President Tinubu is not just playing to win an election; rather, he is playing to choose a compromised opponent. By keeping Atiku in the race, perhaps even offering to fund his ADC presidential primary through proxies, Tinubu will ensure that the “Old Guard” remains in control of the future political strategic narrative.
The main essence of this assumed pact is to effectively squeeze out Peter Obi out of relevance. Tinubu understands that Peter Obi’s strength lies in his national and global outreach status, especially amongst the teeming youths, but in a field where the two most powerful machines are secretly aligned, the oxygen of media attention and political alliance-building will increasingly diminish.
Once there is no political party platform for the “obedient movement”, Tinubu has won by vote counts, as many people may not disturb their peace to go and vote for an already determined verdict. This will equally affect many patriotic Nigerians, who are desperately clamouring for APC’s” Renew Hope Agenda”, disastrous nightmare change. These “diehard ” supporters of Peter Obi will be disappointed by ADC’s choice of Atiku, and the result will be the initiation of protest votes to other cluster parties. The final result will be a “technical knockout” by Tinubu and APC in subsequent elections.
In conclusion, and with the much expected defections from the remnants of PDP to ADC, and the Wike underground plan to unseat Governor of Rivers State, Fubara, through his clowns in the State Assembly, the shadow pawn game has just begun.
My candid opinion is that every Nigerian voter must look past the campaign posters and the heated rallies. The voter must be vigilant and must be ready to protest at any instance of any political propaganda and manipulation. My reason being that, If the secret deal is real, then the 2027 election will be decided in private lounges. This underground decision will be in the form of, Tinubu offers the future (2031) to secure the present, while Atiku, perhaps sensing that this is his last chance to stay relevant, accepts the role of the “preferred antagonist.”
At the end, the ultimate loser in this permutation is the Nigerian electorates, who may find themselves choosing between a carefully curated “opposition” and an incumbent who has already written the script for the next eight years. The “Maradonic” prowess of President Tinubu is on a full display; and the only question is whether the ADC leaders and the Nigerian people will allow themselves to be pawns in this grand master’s deception groove, or to be courageous to confront the unfolding difficult truth.
“Freedom is not a mere word, and can’t be obtained on a platter. It’s a resolution that must truly confront tyrant in whatsoever disguised forms.”- DSM.
While pondering on the above hidden titanic path, don’t forget that I come in PEACE.
Dr. Sunny Oby Maduka (DSM)
Independent Newspaper Saturday January 10, 2026.
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