When George Orwell wrote his classic novel 1984 it is doubtful if he had Nigeria in mind. However, 1984 is fast becoming a reference point in the historical dissection of the current political dispensation. As Buhari wields an iron fist in a democratic government, many are forced to take a good look at 1984 to see its similarities with present day Nigeria.
The concensus across the country is that Nigeria is back to 1984. And like that era of infamy, the economy is again in shambles. Overall confidence in the capacity of government to raise people out of poverty is at an all time low. With the Buhari administration, the Nigerian dream has gone with the wind, or whatever was left of it. As the country nose dives towards the abyss, as civil liberties and institutions are badly eroded and virtually eviscerated in some cases, the greater danger lies in the year 2019.
The danger is gradually evolving and will steam roll come the presidential campaign season in which many think Buhari will seek for reelection. So far, there’s nothing in the books that will give the ruling party and the president to assume millions of gullible Nigerians will fall for another expensive political gimmick like for instance, change, the sequel. It is not going to happen. Nigerians seems to have learned their lessons the hard way. At least, that’s the trending popular feeling all over the political tapestry.
Therefore, how will the ruling APC and Buhari pull off a successful reelection bid? The answer is in the game plan. What is the game plan? Quite an interesting question. Though a commentator lacking the inate abilities of a professional crystal ball gazer, this much is predictable. The year 2019 will be interesting for those who are designing the intrigues and political shenanigans, but it won’t be that exciting for the major contenders gunning for the ultimate prize. I know the suspense is driving you crazy. Tarry a little, this game of thrones is like no other.
If what has transpired is any indication, political opponents will be in for a rough time. The calculus in the game plan is this. The anti-corruption war will be waiting for them. Today, it is believed that all corrupt political leaders lying low now will show their faces in the months leading up to the campaign season proper. However, they will be checkmated by the EFCC forever waiting in the shadows to clip their political ambitions. It will be like the harder they come, the harder they fall.
In the politics of do and die, the major players and contenders to many political offices aren’t going to fold their hands clapping for the APC and Buhari to ride roughshod over everybody. These opponents too will swing into action. There is going to be a lot of wahala, kidnappings, killings, disappearances, public places burnt down by either party. The ruling party APC will blame the PDP and likewise. By that time, the looted funds currently under lock and key will be flowing like the river Ganges. The street urchins, hoodlums, hired assassins, carpetbaggers, political jobbers, professional hypocrites will be jockeying for positions and everywhere will be caught in the vortex of the conundrum.
For now both sides are sharpening their knives and daggers. In 2019, it is very likely for the Fulani herdsmen to have fully taken over from Boko Haram. They are expected to roam the countryside wielding this time more powerful assault weapons. In fact, expect the Fulani herdsmen (FH) looking more like the police or completely integrated into the armed forces of Nigeria. Already, Buhari has faintly hinted on that scenario by saying the military will not go after the Fulani herdsmen like it is going after the Niger Delta Avengers.
But if the Fulani herdsmen think they would be roaming the countryside, backwaters of the country and other sundry places unchallenged, they should have something coming. The brutal clashes between them and the defenders will be a fight beyond description. On the other side, deep in the swaths populated by marshlands, creeks and rivers, a resurgent Avengers in many colors could try to reassert their authority and the fight for a new republic starts all over again. The oil platforms, the pipelines, flow stations and other assets will likely be torched and explode into the heavens.
By cognitive intelligence all this is possible to happen and some. However, it will be left for the current political dispensation to calm the waters by changing the political rhetoric now going on and reengineer the way people look at politics and the government. These must include an economy on the rebound, a polity that is not over heated and the hunger games or game of thrones taking a back seat. Other wise, Nigeria is in for a rough ride come 2019. Let’s pray that the predators in the horizon can vanish. Amen!
___________ Ebi B Asain
Stay tuned…more will be uploaded…..2019 like you’ve never seen before.
OBLONG MEDIA GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE 
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