In his Book ‘The 50th Law’ prolific writer Robert Greene opined that in today’s world, just like every other thing Warfare has evolved, the first to roll out tanks and military hardware (active aggressor) usually suffer the heaviest casualty and loss.
This is so because wars are now prosecuted by allies and proxies and to win more allies you must be seen as vulnerable and endangered.
Contemporary warriors understand this new phenomenon hence they came up with a strategy of war called Passive aggression.
A passive aggressor baits, taunts and VERBALLY attacks his enemy ruthlessly all in a bid to make him take a few wrong steps that will nail him. He must ensure at all cost that his enemy is the first to pull the trigger.
Political warfare has also evolved to this point.
I don’t know of anyone who has implemented Passive aggression so masterfully like Nnamdi Kanu. In fact I don’t think there would’ve been any Kanu without this strategy.
He understands Buhari’s ego, arrogance, high handedness and military reflexes.
This made his regime very predictable hence Kanu has been setting agenda for this government since it came in and he is about to collapse the government without firing a shot.
Immediately after 2015 elections, Nnamdi Kanu doubled down on his rhetorics against Buhari. In line with his expectation, immediately after inauguration The President mandated relevant agencies to jam the signal of Radio Biafra. Kanu managed to keep Radio Biafra on the airwaves.
This gave him the publicity he required as his name graced the front pages of almost all the tabloids in Nigeria.
In his bid to create a kind of cult following he has today in the East he decided to dramatize all he has been saying in London- Buhari’s suffocating hatred for Ndigbo and his willingness to sacrifice anything for Biafra, he announced his coming down to Nigeria. Expectedly, when Kanu came in the government arrested him and tried to quell the protest that ensued with brute force, this brought the Biafra agitation to the front burner on the international scale.
He knows that courage is not only contagious but also seductive, so he maintained a defiant outlook and made sure he uttered words that suggested he is not backing down every day he came to court. His followership swelled and became fanatical.
After he was granted bail, he knew it was time to show the world that he is not a secessionist but a leader of a self determination movement so he organized rallies. The rallies were attended by sea of people and foreign journalists were there to record that. The government became a bit cautious and allowed the rallies to hold but at some point that was frustrating Kanu. Yes the people want Biafra, but why do they want it? What are they running away from? Why will the world see the Biafra Referendum as an urgent need?
He knows that you can keep agitating for a UN supervised Referendum without getting it unless the world considers that as a way to protect an endangered people and save them from oppression and intimidation.
Hence he needed to dramatize to the world perils of being Igbo in Nigeria and prove to them how crude and mindless Nigerian leaders and army can be on Igbos and expose a gang up against Ndigbo.
He doubled down heavily on Buhari. ‘the person they brought back from London is not Buhari, he is one Jubrin from Sudan he said.
The world understands that propaganda is part every struggle so it doesn’t matter what you say but what you do.
He needed to trigger Buhari’s military reflexes, Biafra security service (BSS) was formed and he dared Buhari to arrest him.
Kanu knows that once the President is angry he acts before thinking.
At this point President Buhari committed the biggest blunder of his life in government, he rolled out the tanks on a people who were just holding Biafran flags, talking and throwing their fists in the air. At the risk of their lives Kanu and IPOB made sure that this military invasion was well recorded and documented.
in a haste to cover their mistakes the government went ahead to label the Indigenous people of Biafra (IPOB) a terrorist organization. This portrayed Nigerian government as dangerously unserious and diplomatically stupid. Labelling IPOB registered in The US and UK a terrorist group is tantamount to accusing those countries of harbouring domestic terrorist cells- that’s the interpretation in diplomatic circles.
These blunders sealed the deal for Biafrans, Referendum is no longer a matter of if but when.
Do you still wonder why Obasanjo, a man that dismissed Kanu and IPOB as a group of hungry boys looking for money from govt a year ago is now advising Buhari to dialogue with Kanu?
Do you still wonder why the Army that declared IPOB a terrorist organization came out to deny that after 2 days?
Do you still wonder why Buhari, a no nonsense President hurriedly arranged Northern governors to head to the East for peace talks?
Do you still wonder why the quiet GEJ suddenly came out to tell the President to seek advice from ex presidents on how to handle the Biafran agitation?
Kanu has boxed the government to a corner, the international pressure has reached a crescendo and some people do not want to answer for genocide at Hague