WHAT MAKES APGA WIN AND MAY CONTINUE TO WIN IN ANAMBRA

If you know Anambra very well, you will understand that no candidate produced by either APC or PDP would have defeated Governor Willy Obiano. Dr Chris Ngige saw this after two serial defeats to APGA and quietly dodged this time around.

PDP had always won in Anambra when they did and in National Assembly elections by the PDP Federal might and not by popular will of the people. That is why even many years after elections are won for the legislative houses, there remain a constant battle as to whose list actually produced the authentic flag-bearer. More often, it has been the Court that settles the authentic flag-bearers. The cases of Senator Annie Okonkwo, Joy Emodi, Emma Anosike etc are all fresh and it even continued into the last election. it was the Supreme Court that settled the last dispute over whose list is the authentic list of candidates for PDP Anambra State.

From 1999, Anambra PDP have been defined by a battle of who controls the state party machinary and delivers his line up. It had always been Chief Emeka Offor, Chris Ubah, Andy Ubah, Athur Eze, Ifeanyi Ubah, Olisah Metuh etc all battling for a total control. Recently the list swole with Peter Obi, Stella Oduah etc.

Their battle has never been has been the most difficult for any sitting President because they always refuse any compromise. Successive Presidents use tact to navigate their differences. In fact it was their irreconcilable differences that led to the birth of APGA and their successive victory and it even played out again last Saturday. National leadership of the party battles to make headway in Anambra. The worst is all the gladiators are super rich and have the capacity and direct contact to the President and the National Party Chairman. That is why the National Leadership of PDP always play them by collecting irresistible cash from them and giving them their wish. in most cases one groups list of nominees are submitted to INEC and within a twinkle of an eye the names disappears in INEC and another goes in. That has been the National PDP way of dealing with them. After they push them to the Courts to go sought it out. Recall also that an attempt to help shape the Anambra PDP godfathers contributed to the battle Chief Ikedi Ohakim faced him his second term bid. The gladiators are all powerful and refuse any attempt to share power with the other. The only language they hear is total and 100% control from House of Assembly list, Governor to National Assembly.

Remember after Chief Emeka Offor delivered Chinwoke Mbadinuju in 1999, the Ubah brothers upstaged him in Aso Rock to produce Dr Chris Ngige in 2003. Andy Ubah held the OBJ goodwill, Chris Ubah was the executor. When Dr Chris Ngige failed to keep agreement, it was PDP that went to the Anambra Election Tribunal to declare openly that they rigged the election in favour of Ngige. That was how APGA grabbed power.

Since then, it has been a battle of who grabs the ticket. Once one person is outsmarted the next option is to allow APGA the lesser evil continue to open the space to all in the next four years.

In the last election, Chief Athur Eze, Andy Ubah and Tony Nwoye all migrated to the APC in other to grab the chance and leverage on the ruling party at the federa level to actualize their ambition. Once Athur Eze and Tony Nwoye outsmarted Senator Andy Ubah, then to him APGA must win again.

In PDP, the new entrant Peter Obi held the ace. That meant Chris Ubah, the Offor;s Senator Oduahs, Nicholas Ukachukwus, Ifeanyi Ubahs and the host of other aspirants must allow APGA continue.

These are the factors that deliver victory to APGA in Anambra and it is going to continue like this for a very long time. The PDP forces in Anambra can never agree and once one person outsmarts the other, the losing parties always resort to a deal with APGA than allow the other. In this election, elements of PDP AND APC all made a deal and or worked for the incumbent Governor. If Senator Andy Ubah is for Willy, Ifeanyi Ubah for Willy, Chris Ubah for Willy, Emeka Offor indifferent and not willing for an Athur Eze Highjack, Senator Stella Oduah for Willy and Peter Obi and Arthur Eze on a different battle in PDP and APC, tell me why Willy will not win.

This trend is likely to continue for decades unless these gladiators learn to reach a compromise to oust APGA.

Kissinger Ikeokwu is a lawyer and analyser of political trends.

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