Most knowledgeable Nigerians do not need any religious con artist to tell us that Nigerians are in for torrid times in 2019, if we do not elect men and women , who can help us to wither the impending fiscal revenue disaster that stare us right in the face .
Any smart ten year old kid, based on facts and realities on ground today in the world , Nigeria and Imo state can easily predict that Nigeria is about to enter her worst season in over 4 decades
The only thing that can mitigate the impending doom to some great extent , so as to stop us from going the way of Venezuela is if a majority of us make up our minds to elect only creative minds, deeply knowledgeable and honest Nigerians at all levels and tiers of government to pilot the affairs of this country between 2019-2023.
The reasons why we might slip back into worse recesion in 2019, are not far fetched. They include :
1. In 2018, Nigeria’s daily crude oil output was 1.98m barrels a day against budget benchmark of 2.3m barrels per day. However, this shortfall was cushioned by the fact that Crude oil prices in 2018 sold at average of $72/barrel, which was over $20/barrel above the budget benchmark of $51/barrel .
However and most unfortunately, despite this crude oil sales windfall, the economy only grew by just 1.81% , which is way below our population growth of 3% per annum. The population growing more than the productivity of the Nigerian economy simply means that we had 6 Nigerians being pushed into the extreme poverty region every minute of the day. That is the reason why we had over 7 million Nigerians being pushed into the unemployment market ( losing their jobs).
The inefficiencies and looting that took place across the three tiers of government and the other arms of government helped to exacerbate an already worsened fiscal situation. For over 43 months, both at the FGN and most of the state levels , nothing tangible and sustainable was done to diversify the economy. It was all talk and no action.
2. 2019, is going to be very horrible for most Nigerians, if we make the mistake of allowing a majority of the folks who participated in the current governance disasters , at the different tiers/arms of governments to continue or elect men and women without creative minds and brains to work selflessly and honestly for the people.
Already the average crude oil price the sweet Brent is selling at $52/barrel. This is $8/barrel below the budget benchmark of $60/barrel. The projected 2.3million crude output for 2019 is already dead at the door step . This is because, OPEC has announced a proposed 1.2m barrel crude output cuts for 2019 amongst members of the cartel .
Nigeria as a member of OPEC may not be allowed to produce more than 1.7m barrels per day . Thus we already have over 600,000 barrels per day shave off from our anticipated daily output.
Anyone expecting that the OPEC 1.2m barrels per day cut from the global daily supply of 93m will cause an upward swing in the prices of the crude in 2019 is in for a shocker. This is because the U.S. under Donald Trump has already drilled 184 oil wells that will add over 2m barrels per day into the already saturated global supply volume of 93m per day by June 2019.
As long as Donald Trump is the U.S. President till 2020, energy prices will remain low and US will continue to explore and drill for more fossil fuel .
What this means is that most of the states in Nigeria will receive less revenues in 2019 than they got in 2018 from the federation accounts. What it means is that they will continue to widen pension arears and owe their workers more arrears of salaries . This is because most of these governors do not have the discipline and creativity to cut cost of governance , stop the looting spree and diversify their state economies to be less dependent on the crude revenue trickles from Abuja.
Nigeria and Imo state can ride through this storm in 2019 to boom, instead of doom , if we decide to collectively elect at all tiers and arms of governments, creative minds with deep knowledge, discipline, capacities, selflessness and integrity to do the jobs and do it well.
The situation of our dear Imo state is worse than that of the other states in the South East . Imo state need urgent creative governance bailout . With debt profile estimate in excess of N200bn . Debt that will require over N36-42bn annually to service it , and an annual non debt overhead recurrent cost of over N50bn per annum, how do we ride this storm ?
This is one reason why Ndi Imo must elect Tony Nwulu and Nnaemeka Obiaraeri to help us salvage the situation.
We have already developed a comprehensive /scientific strategic road map/work plan to help us transform Imo state over the next 4 years .
Our first job is to cut the governance waste . A situation where Imo state spend over N2.8bn monthly in non debt recurrent overhead outside salaries and wages is unacceptable. It must go down below N1bn. We must weed out the ghost workers and looters in the system .
We must diversify the state economy concretely and sustainably . We must put in place transparent/peoplecentric policies and programs that engenders productivity and not looting . Turn Imo state into a mega development workshop.
Imo shall be governed as a progressive focused Enterprise that adds value to all the stakeholders.
Support and Vote Tony Nwulu and Nnaemeka Obiaraeri. Vote UPP ebe esere Isi agu. Help us to get into Douglas House Owerri to execute that audacious N926bn/$2.56billion 4 years blue print that will Make Imo Great again. Join us Ka anyi Mezie Imo in 2019
God help us
Tony Nwulu and Nnaemeka Obiaraeri