Tinubu under pressure.

France has been exerting pressure on Tinubu, utilizing its influence over previous allies such as Mali, Niger, Chad, and Cameroon. These countries have historically supported Nigeria’s efforts to maintain unity and combat insurgencies, including during the Nigeria-Biafra war and the fight against Boko Haram. In exchange, France was promised access to Nigerian gas. This arrangement has also been favorable to Britain, which has appreciated France’s efforts to keep Nigeria united since the 1960s.

However, France has been disillusioned by the lack of support from the USA, UK, and others in suppressing uprisings in its former colonies. Instead of backing France, these countries have engaged in secret negotiations with the insurgent powers in the Sahel. This perceived betrayal has strained France’s relations with these nations.

France, feeling let down by Britain’s reluctance to support military operations in Niger and aligning with northern Nigerian oligarchs against French interests, has decided to take a more aggressive stance. France’s control over terrorist groups in the Sahel and its readiness to unleash terror in northern Nigeria in retaliation for opposition from northern leaders indicates a severe escalation of tensions.

Amidst these developments, France has advised Tinubu’s government to consider relocating key institutions from Abuja to Lagos to avoid a potential crisis similar to the situation in Afghanistan, where key cities fell to insurgents. This move could also prompt foreign missions to relocate, potentially isolating Abuja.

The dynamics between Nigeria, France, the UK, and the USA are complex, with each nation pursuing its interests amidst changing political landscapes. The UK is seeking to engage with the Eastern region of Nigeria, wary of IPOB’s growing influence and its potential connections with Russia and the BRICS nations. The UK’s efforts to counter IPOB’s narrative include direct engagement with governmental and traditional institutions in the region.

The situation is fraught with geopolitical maneuvering, with each player navigating the challenges of maintaining influence and control in a rapidly changing environment.

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