Fulani Militancy and the Looming War: Is the Breakup of Nigeria the Only Way to Prevent Ethnic Cleansing?

Nigeria is standing on a blood-soaked knife’s edge. What began as seasonal migration by nomadic Fulani herdsmen has spiraled into one of the most underreported insurgencies in the world today, a slow, methodical campaign of terror, ethnic displacement, and land seizure. As armed Fulani militias extend their reach from the Sahel through the Middle Belt and now deep into Nigeria’s South, one question becomes too urgent to ignore:

Is Nigeria heading for a Rwanda-style genocide, and is disintegration the only viable path to peace?

1. ORIGINS OF THE FULANI INCURSION: A CONFLICT ROOTED IN GEOPOLITICS AND GREED

The Fulani, or Fulbe, a widely dispersed West African ethnic group traditionally known for nomadic cattle herding, have Historically traversed the Sahel in search of pasture. However, the steady collapse of ecological balance in Northern Nigeria, exacerbated by climate change, desertification, and geopolitical instability, has triggered mass southward migration. But this is no longer migration. It is militarized colonization.

Root Drivers of the Crisis:

Climate Change: Over 60% of the Sahel’s arable land is now desertified. Northern Nigeria has lost over 351,000 hectares of arable land in the past decade alone (UNDP Report, 2023).

Population Pressure: Nigeria’s population allegedly surged from 140 million in 2006 to over 223 million in 2023. Land is supposedly scarce, and competition is vicious.

Arms Proliferation: Post-Gaddafi Libya flooded West Africa with weapons. Armed Fulani cells have grown bolder and more coordinated.

Collapse of Traditional Governance: Chiefs and Emirs once resolved farmer-herder tensions. Today, militias answer to no one.

2. APC’S DARK ORIGIN STORY: WHEN POWER HUNGER UNLEASHED TERROR

In a shocking but widely corroborated revelation, Kawu Baraje, a founding member of the APC and former PDP chieftain, confessed in 2018 that elements within the APC allegedly imported Fulani mercenaries from Mali, Niger, and Chad in 2014 to cause chaos in the event of electoral defeat in 2015. That defeat never came, but the terror never left.

What followed:

Mass Killings: The Global Terrorism Index (2018) ranked Fulani militants as the 4th deadliest terror group in the world, behind ISIS, Boko Haram, and the Taliban.

Unchecked Violence: Between 2015 and 2023, over 10,000 Nigerians, mainly farmers in Benue, Plateau, Taraba, and Nasarawa, were killed in Fulani-related attacks (SBM Intelligence).

Southward Invasion: Attacks were recorded in:

Enugu (Nimbo massacre, 2024),

Delta (Uwheru, 2023),

Akwa Ibom and Abia (forest settlements uncovered with arms, 2023–2024).

Yet, zero known prosecutions, no arrests of militia leaders, and no meaningful disarmament.

3. THE EVIDENCE OF COMPLICITY: WHEN THE STATE LOOKS AWAY

Under President Buhari (2015–2023), several policies alarmed citizens:

RUGA (2019): A failed attempt to establish Fulani settlements across states, which many saw as a state-sponsored land grab.

Grazing Routes Revival: Buhari’s plan to “recover” old routes across states, including Southern lands, further inflamed tensions.

Tinubu’s Deafening Silence: Since taking office in 2023, President Tinubu has yet to declare Fulani militias as terror groups, despite repeated massacres.

Security agencies, heavily dominated by Northern Muslim officers, routinely look the other way while communities burn.

4. THE SCORCHED EARTH: WHAT NIGERIA IS FACING NOW

A. Ethnic Cleansing in Progress

Benue State: Over 1.5 million people displaced as of 2023 (NEMA data).

Enugu, Ondo, Ekiti: Armed herdsmen occupy forest reserves, forcing villagers to abandon farmlands.

B. Billion-Naira Kidnap Industry

Over ₦10 billion paid in ransom in 2023 alone (Nigerian Senate estimate).

Victims span from schoolchildren to clergy to politicians.

C. Economic Impact

Over ₦3.2 trillion in agricultural losses annually due to insecurity and displacement (AfDB 2022).

Rise in food inflation (33.9% as of April 2025) directly linked to herder attacks.

5. THE SLIPPERY SLOPE: IS DISINTEGRATION A WAY OUT?

Let us confront a grim reality: If Nigeria remains on its current path, the country could collapse into full-blown ethnic war, one even bloodier than Biafra. Already:

Yoruba South-West has activated Amotekun.

Igbo South-East launched nothing

Benue has armed Livestock Guards.

Delta and Rivers are quietly building local militias.

If the Federal Government cannot protect lives, state-backed ethnic defense forces will proliferate, and the end of Nigeria as a united entity will be a matter of “when,” not “if.”

6. POSSIBLE OUTCOMES: THE THREE ROADS AHEAD

A. The Rwandan Scenario
Ethnic tensions explode into genocide. Villages wiped out. Military splits along ethnic lines. International peacekeepers arrive late, as usual.

B. Balkanization and Peaceful Breakup
Like Yugoslavia, Nigeria dissolves into self-governing ethnic republics. The Igbo, Yoruba, Middle Belt, and Niger Delta states form sovereign units. The Fulani north consolidates power in a core Islamic state. There is short-term chaos, but long-term peace and regional development may finally emerge.

C. Military Crackdown and Authoritarianism
The federal government imposes martial law to crush dissent. Civil liberties disappear. Ethnic profiling becomes normalized. Nigeria enters its darkest political era since the 1980s.

7. ULTIMATELY: THE CLOCK IS TICKING

The Fulani militancy scourge is not a mere security issue, it is a socio-political time bomb that questions the very idea of Nigeria. If a segment of the country can invade, kill, displace, and face no consequences, then the social contract is broken.

Unless the government:

Declares armed Fulani militias as terrorists,

Fully disarms and disbands them,

Investigates and punishes their political sponsors,

Enforces anti-open grazing laws and begins national ranching programs,

then Nigeria must begin to prepare for an orderly breakup.

Let no one deceive you: unity without justice is tyranny in disguise. And what we see today is not peace, it is quiet occupation.

History is calling. Nigeria must choose: reform or rupture. The time for euphemisms is over.

Author’s Note: This article is dedicated to the thousands of victims of unprovoked herdsmen attacks across Nigeria. Their voices must never be forgotten.

By Chima Nnadi-Oforgu
Duruebube Uzii na Abosi

Published by Oblong Media Unlimited

http://www.oblongmedia.net