An Oblong Media Global Intelligence Analysis.
The clamour for state police has become louder than ever. Many Nigerians, frustrated by terrorism, banditry, kidnapping and violent crime, understandably see state police as the silver bullet that will finally restore security.
But history teaches us one painful lesson: every bad policy sounds attractive when people are desperate.
The real question is not whether Nigeria needs better policing. It certainly does.
The question is whether the same political class that has struggled to manage existing institutions can suddenly be trusted with direct command of armed police formations.
Our assessment is that Nigeria should proceed with extreme caution.
The problem is not Abuja alone
A dangerous narrative has emerged suggesting that Nigeria’s security failures exist solely because policing is controlled from Abuja.
That argument ignores a much deeper reality.
Nigeria’s insecurity did not begin because there was no state police. It grew out of decades of political interference, corruption, poor intelligence gathering, weak criminal justice, porous borders, proliferation of illegal arms, youth unemployment, and the inability, or unwillingness, of those in authority to confront criminality before it became entrenched.
Changing the colour of the police uniform or transferring command from Abuja to state capitals will not automatically solve any of those problems.
If the disease is political, changing the hospital does not cure the patient.
History has already warned Nigeria
Those advocating state police often present it as an entirely new idea.
It is not.
Nigeria operated regional and local police forces before military rule. Those forces were frequently accused of being used by regional governments to intimidate political opponents, suppress dissent and influence elections.
Those experiences were among the reasons successive military governments eventually centralised policing.
History may not repeat itself exactly, but it often rhymes.
Today, many governors already exercise enormous influence over local security architecture through vigilante organisations, neighbourhood security outfits, and other state supported structures.
Imagine what could happen if those same political actors possessed constitutionally recognised police powers, complete with arrest, detention, intelligence and prosecution support.
The concern is not theoretical.
In almost every election cycle since 1999, allegations have surfaced of security agencies being used, directly or indirectly, for political advantage.
Giving governors even greater control without first strengthening independent institutions could simply move the problem from Abuja to the states.
The uncomfortable question Nigerians should ask
Before demanding state police, Nigerians should ask themselves a simple question.
Do we completely trust every governor in Nigeria?
Not the governor we support today.
Every governor.
Can we honestly say that every state executive has demonstrated enough respect for democratic institutions, civil liberties and political opposition to justify placing an armed police force directly under their influence?
If the answer is no, then caution becomes not just advisable but necessary.
Constitutions should be designed for the worst possible office holder, not the best.
The funding crisis nobody wants to discuss
Running a modern police service is extraordinarily expensive.
It requires continuous investment in recruitment, salaries, housing, forensic laboratories, communications technology, surveillance systems, intelligence gathering, vehicles, aviation support, training, insurance, pensions and modern equipment.
Many states still struggle to meet basic financial obligations.
Several depend heavily on monthly allocations from the Federation Account to pay workers.
Some have accumulated pension arrears.
Others struggle to maintain schools, hospitals and existing infrastructure.
If a state cannot consistently pay teachers, doctors or civil servants, how will it sustain a professional police service throughout economic downturns?
An underfunded police force is not merely ineffective.
It can become vulnerable to corruption, political manipulation and organised criminal infiltration.
Nigeria already spends billions on security
Every year, billions of naira are allocated to security across the federation.
Federal security budgets continue to rise.
States also receive security votes running into billions of naira annually, yet these expenditures are often exempt from detailed public scrutiny.
If existing security expenditure has not delivered the desired outcomes, Nigerians should first demand transparency, accountability and measurable results before creating another costly policing bureaucracy.
Good governance is not measured by how much money is spent.
It is measured by what that money achieves.
Politics remains Nigeria’s greatest security threat
Our analysis continues to indicate that insecurity in Nigeria is as much a political challenge as it is a criminal one.
Criminal networks flourish where governance is weak.
Terrorists exploit intelligence failures.
Kidnappers benefit from slow prosecutions.
Illegal arms circulate because enforcement is inconsistent.
Communal conflicts escalate when political actors weaponise ethnic and religious divisions.
None of these problems disappears simply because policing becomes decentralised.
Without institutional reform, state police could merely decentralise the abuse rather than decentralise justice.
Reform before expansion
Nigeria undoubtedly requires policing reforms.
Community policing deserves serious strengthening.
State governments should play greater roles in intelligence gathering, crime prevention and logistical support.
The Nigeria Police Force requires better welfare, improved training, modern technology, stronger forensic capabilities and genuine operational independence from political interference.
Independent oversight bodies should be strengthened to investigate misconduct at every level.
The criminal justice system must become faster, more transparent and more effective.
Only after these safeguards are firmly established should the country contemplate transferring coercive police powers to sub national governments.
The lesson Nigerians must never forget
Every law creates powers.
Every power can either protect liberty or destroy it.
The question is never whether power will be used.
The question is whether it can be abused.
Until Nigeria develops stronger institutions than individuals, greater accountability than patronage, and rule of law stronger than political loyalty, creating state police risks handing an already overbearing political class an even more powerful instrument of coercion.
Security should protect the people, not whichever politician occupies Government House.
As the nation debates constitutional reform, Nigerians must resist emotional arguments and insist on institutional safeguards.
A bad system does not become good simply because it is decentralised.
Sometimes, decentralising a flawed system only multiplies the number of people capable of abusing it.
That is the warning history offers.
Whether Nigeria chooses to heed it remains to be seen.
By Duruebube Chimazuru Nnadi-Oforgu
For Oblong Media Global Intelligence
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