How One of the World’s Most Resource Rich Nations Became Poor, And Why 2027 Must Be About Competence, Courage and National Rescue.
OBLONG MEDIA GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE SPECIAL ANALYSIS.
There was a time when the Nigerian naira was stronger than the British pound.
Think about that for a moment.
A country emerging from colonial rule possessed a currency that commanded extraordinary international purchasing power. Nigerian students of that era remember subsidised or virtually free university education, accommodation and meals, bursaries and allowances. Graduates entered a country expanding universities, industries, public institutions and infrastructure.
Nigeria had oil.
Nigeria had cocoa.
Nigeria had groundnuts.
Nigeria had palm produce.
Nigeria had rubber.
Nigeria had coal.
Nigeria had tin.
Nigeria had enormous agricultural capacity.
And eventually, Nigeria discovered even greater quantities of oil and gas.
More than half a century later, we must ask one of the most uncomfortable questions in our national history:
What happened to Nigeria?
Because the greatest Nigerian tragedy is not that we are poor.
It is that we have absolutely no business being poor.
That distinction should define the political conversation as Nigeria approaches another presidential election.
WE WERE NOT BORN POOR
Nigeria entered independence in 1960 with enormous economic potential.
Before petroleum became dominant, regional economies were substantially supported by agriculture and commodities. Cocoa helped drive development in the West. Groundnuts were synonymous with the North. Palm produce sustained significant economic activity in the East. Tin mining was important around Jos. Coal was extracted around Enugu.
Then came petroleum.
And with the dramatic increases in global oil prices during the 1970s, Nigeria suddenly found itself awash with revenues on a scale its young institutions were poorly prepared to manage.
The country embarked upon ambitious infrastructure projects. Universities expanded. Roads were constructed. New public institutions emerged. Nigerian students were being trained as engineers, doctors, lawyers, scientists, economists and administrators.
Nigeria appeared to be preparing itself for greatness.
But underneath that prosperity was a structural weakness that would eventually become catastrophic.
We increasingly abandoned the diversity of the economy that had sustained us before oil.
Agriculture declined in relative importance.
Manufacturing remained inadequate.
Industrialisation never reached its potential.
Infrastructure failed to keep pace with population growth.
And government became dangerously dependent on petroleum revenue.
Oil ceased to become merely one component of the Nigerian economy.
Oil became the economy’s life support machine.
That was the beginning of our vulnerability.
THEN THE OIL PRICE FELL
When international oil markets deteriorated dramatically in the early 1980s, Nigeria discovered something terrifying:
We had constructed an expensive state around income we could not guarantee.
Foreign exchange became scarce.
Debt accumulated.
Imports became increasingly difficult to sustain.
Economic conditions deteriorated.
And eventually came 1986 and the Structural Adjustment Programme under General Ibrahim Babangida.
The programme introduced currency liberalisation and devaluation, reductions in subsidies and government expenditure, trade liberalisation and other market-oriented reforms.
Its defenders argued that Nigeria had reached an unsustainable economic position and painful restructuring had become unavoidable.
Its critics argue that the programme imposed devastating social costs while failing to build the productive economy required to compensate Nigerians for those sacrifices.
Whatever side of that historical argument one occupies, one fact is impossible to dispute:
The Nigeria that emerged from the economic crises of the 1980s was profoundly different from the Nigeria that entered the decade.
The naira deteriorated dramatically.
University funding suffered.
Subsidised student welfare progressively disappeared.
Middle class purchasing power declined.
Professionals increasingly emigrated.
Doctors left.
Engineers left.
Academics left.
Scientists left.
Entrepreneurs left.
The brain drain became institutionalised.
And decades later, Nigeria is still exporting some of the human capital it spends enormous resources producing.
BUT THE OIL NEVER STOPPED FLOWING
This is where the Nigerian story becomes particularly painful.
Nigeria’s economic difficulties cannot simply be blamed on foreigners, colonialism, the IMF or falling oil prices.
Because the oil continued flowing.
Billions upon billions of dollars continued entering the Nigerian economy over successive decades.
And yet ordinary Nigerians repeatedly queued for petrol inside one of Africa’s largest petroleum producing countries.
Pause there.
An oil producing nation became chronically dependent on imported refined petroleum products.
A country endowed with enormous natural gas reserves became synonymous with generators.
A nation capable of supplying energy resources to the international market struggled to supply electricity to its own citizens.
That is the Nigerian paradox.
We export energy and import darkness.
We export crude and have historically imported enormous quantities of refined fuel.
We export resources and import finished products.
We export some of our finest doctors and import medical treatment for our political elite.
We export agricultural commodities and import food.
We export minerals and import manufactured products containing those minerals.
At some point, Nigerians must stop treating these contradictions as normal.
They are not normal.
THE CORRUPTION CANNOT BE ERASED FROM THE STORY
Any serious account of Nigeria’s decline must confront corruption.
Nigeria’s petroleum sector has repeatedly been subjected to allegations, investigations and disputes involving enormous sums of money.
But accuracy matters.
Why does that distinction matter?
Because Nigeria’s corruption problem is already sufficiently outrageous.
We do not need exaggeration to make it scandalous.
The documented truth is devastating enough.
Trillions have disappeared through corruption, waste, inflated procurement, abandoned projects, oil theft, inefficient subsidies, opaque government transactions and institutional failure across successive administrations.
Military and civilian.
Northern and Southern.
Christian and Muslim.
PDP and APC.
Nigeria’s tragedy cannot conveniently be deposited at the doorstep of one administration, one ethnic group or one political party.
It is systemic.
AND THAT BRINGS US TO ASO ROCK
Nigeria must now establish a radically different standard for anyone seeking the presidency.
The presidency is not an inheritance.
It is not compensation for spending thirty years in politics.
It is not a retirement package.
It is not a reward for controlling a political party.
It is not something to be auctioned to whoever possesses the largest campaign war chest.
It is not the private property of political godfathers.
And it is certainly not something Nigerians should surrender simply because somebody says:
“It is my turn.”
The Nigerian presidency is a job.
And the job is extraordinarily simple to define:
MAKE NIGERIA WORK.
ONE YEAR SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SHOW DIRECTION
Nobody can transform a country of more than 200 million people in twelve months.
That would be an unreasonable standard.
But after one year, Nigerians should be able to identify the direction in which their country is travelling.
We should see an energy strategy.
We should see an industrial strategy.
We should see a credible electricity programme.
We should see a refining strategy.
We should see serious gas development.
We should see agricultural industrialisation.
We should see infrastructure moving beyond announcements.
We should see investment translating into factories and employment.
We should see measurable efforts to reduce the cost of governance.
We should see institutions becoming stronger.
We should see where the President intends to take Nigeria.
If after governing for a meaningful period a president cannot explain how a country blessed with oil, gas, minerals, fertile land and enormous human capital will produce reliable electricity, fuel, industries and jobs for its own population, Nigerians have every right to ask:
WHY SHOULD WE GIVE YOU ANOTHER FOUR YEARS?
That question must apply to every president.
Present and future.
No exceptions.
No sentiment.
No ethnicity.
No religion.
No party loyalty.
2027 MUST BECOME AN INTERVIEW FOR THE BIGGEST JOB IN NIGERIA
Every serious presidential candidate should be placed before Nigerians and required to answer specific questions.
Where is your electricity plan?
Not “we shall improve power.”
Show us the numbers.
How many megawatts?
Generated how?
Transmitted how?
Distributed how?
Financed how?
Delivered when?
Where is your petroleum strategy?
How much crude should Nigeria refine domestically?
What is government’s role?
What is the private sector’s role?
How do we make domestic refining sustainable and competitive?
Where is your gas strategy?
Nigeria possesses extraordinary gas resources.
How will gas power industries, electricity generation, fertiliser production, petrochemicals, transportation and exports?
Where is your industrial policy?
Which industries will Nigeria deliberately build competitive advantages in?
Where is your agricultural strategy?
Not distributing bags of fertiliser for photographs.
How do we connect farms to processing plants, storage facilities, railways, ports, supermarkets and export markets?
And most importantly:
HOW MANY NIGERIANS WILL YOUR ECONOMIC PLAN LIFT OUT OF POVERTY?
If a presidential candidate cannot answer these questions intelligently, Nigerians should ask what exactly that individual intends to do inside Aso Rock.
WE NEED A DIFFERENT KIND OF NIGERIAN PRESIDENT
Nigeria does not merely need another politician.
We need leadership with intellectual depth, courage, stubbornness, negotiating ability and an almost obsessive commitment to Nigerian interests.
And yes:
Nigeria needs a stubborn President.
Not stubborn in ignorance.
Not stubborn against criticism.
Not stubborn merely for political theatre.
We need somebody stubborn in defence of Nigeria.
Someone capable of sitting opposite the President of the United States, the British Prime Minister, the Chinese President, European leaders, international bankers and multinational corporations and saying:
“I understand what you want. Now let me tell you what Nigeria wants.”
That is how sovereign nations negotiate.
THE WEST HAS INTERESTS. SO SHOULD NIGERIA.
We must also mature beyond simplistic anti-Western rhetoric.
The West is not going to develop Nigeria for Nigerians.
China will not develop Nigeria for Nigerians.
Russia will not develop Nigeria for Nigerians.
The IMF will not develop Nigeria for Nigerians.
Multinational corporations will not develop Nigeria for Nigerians.
They will pursue their interests.
And there is nothing surprising about that.
The question is:
WHO IS PURSUING NIGERIA’S INTEREST?
That is the job of the Nigerian President.
Britain has interests.
America has interests.
France has interests.
China has interests.
Russia has interests.
Europe has interests.
International financial institutions have interests.
Multinational corporations have interests.
Nigeria must have interests too.
Our relationship with powerful countries should therefore become mature, transactional and mutually beneficial.
You want access to our market?
Fine.
You want our gas?
Fine.
You want our oil?
Fine.
You want our lithium, bitumen or other minerals?
Fine.
What is Nigeria getting?
We need technology transfer.
We need electricity infrastructure.
We need gas processing.
We need domestic refining.
We need manufacturing.
We need railways.
We need ports.
We need industrial capacity.
We need Nigerian engineers trained.
We need Nigerian technicians employed.
We need local supply chains.
We need communities benefiting from resources extracted from their land.
And above everything:
WE NEED OUR PEOPLE OUT OF POVERTY.
THAT IS NOT ANTI-WESTERN. THAT IS PRO-NIGERIAN.
Nigeria does not need to fight the West.
Nigeria needs to negotiate with the West.
Firmly.
Intelligently.
Fearlessly.
There are colonial legacies and unequal historical relationships that cannot simply be wished away. But endlessly discussing colonialism without developing the capacity to negotiate contemporary Nigerian interests will not generate one megawatt of electricity.
The conversation today should be:
You have your interests. We have ours. Let us negotiate.
Partnership without subservience.
Cooperation without surrender.
Foreign investment without permanent dependency.
Resource extraction tied wherever practicable to domestic value creation.
Nigeria must increasingly ask every serious investor:
What industry will this investment create here?
How many Nigerians will it employ?
What technology will remain here?
What skills will Nigerians acquire?
What infrastructure will remain after the resource has been extracted?
How much value will be added inside Nigeria?
That is how serious nations think.
WE CANNOT KEEP DIGGING THINGS OUT OF THE GROUND AND CALLING IT DEVELOPMENT
For generations, Africa has exported raw materials and imported expensive finished products.
Nigeria cannot continue repeating this model indefinitely.
If we export crude oil and import refined petroleum, somebody else captures the refining value.
If we export raw minerals and import manufactured products, somebody else captures the industrial value.
If we export cocoa and import premium chocolate, somebody else captures much of the processing, branding and retail value.
If we export talented young Nigerians because our economy cannot employ them, another country captures the productive value of human beings Nigeria helped educate.
That is not development.
Development means increasingly capturing the value chain.
Resources must become production.
Production must create jobs.
Jobs must create income.
Income must create purchasing power.
Purchasing power must expand markets.
Expanded markets must encourage further production.
Production must generate taxes.
Taxes must build infrastructure.
Infrastructure must enable more production.
That is the cycle Nigeria has failed to create at sufficient scale.
BUT LET US ALSO STOP BLAMING EVERYBODY EXCEPT OURSELVES
Colonial exploitation was real.
Foreign interests are real.
Unequal global power is real.
Corporate exploitation can be real.
But Nigerian corruption is also real.
Nigerian incompetence is real.
Nigerian political patronage is real.
Nigerian electoral irresponsibility is real.
And Nigerian elites protecting systems from which they benefit is very real.
We cannot blame Britain for every abandoned Nigerian road.
We cannot blame America for every inflated government contract.
We cannot blame the IMF for every generator supplying electricity to a government office while public power infrastructure deteriorates.
We cannot blame colonialism when money appropriated for a Nigerian hospital disappears.
At some point, responsibility must come home.
Nigeria was damaged from outside, but Nigeria has also been repeatedly betrayed from within.
And until we acknowledge both truths simultaneously, we will continue diagnosing only half the disease.
SOMETIMES THE ENEMY IS SITTING IN ABUJA
The greatest obstacle to Nigerian transformation may not always be sitting in Washington, London, Paris or Beijing.
Sometimes he is sitting comfortably in Abuja.
There are beneficiaries of dysfunctional systems.
Beneficiaries of import dependency.
Beneficiaries of opaque procurement.
Beneficiaries of oil theft.
Beneficiaries of electricity dysfunction.
Beneficiaries of insecurity.
Beneficiaries of government monopolies.
Beneficiaries of foreign exchange distortions.
Beneficiaries of poverty itself.
A transformational president must therefore be prepared to offend powerful people.
There will be resistance.
There will be political consequences.
There may be international pressure.
There will almost certainly be domestic sabotage.
But leadership is not avoiding difficult battles.
Leadership is knowing which battles are worth fighting.
And giving Nigerians electricity is worth fighting for.
Domestic refining is worth fighting for.
Gas-based industrialisation is worth fighting for.
Food security is worth fighting for.
Manufacturing is worth fighting for.
Creating millions of productive jobs is worth fighting for.
Building a currency supported by a productive economy is worth fighting for.
Getting Nigerians out of poverty is worth fighting for.
THE NAIRA DOES NOT NEED PRAYERS. IT NEEDS PRODUCTION.
We constantly discuss the exchange rate as though the value of the naira can permanently be legislated into existence.
A currency ultimately reflects, among other things, confidence, productivity, trade, inflation, capital flows and the demand for what its economy produces.
If Nigeria produces more of what Nigerians consume, exports more competitive goods and services, improves energy supply, attracts productive investment and reduces structural import dependence, the foundations beneath the naira become stronger.
You cannot sustainably command a currency into strength while importing enormous quantities of what your population consumes.
Strong currencies ultimately require strong economies.
That is why nostalgia about the naira of the 1970s is not enough.
The objective is not to return magically to 1973.
The objective is to build a 2027 economy capable of competing in 2050.
AND NIGERIANS MUST CHANGE TOO
This may be the most difficult part.
We cannot demand Singapore and vote according to ethnicity.
We cannot demand Dubai and choose leaders because they share our religion.
We cannot demand China level infrastructure and treat elections like tribal warfare.
We cannot demand competent government and then celebrate incompetence because “our brother” is in office.
Nigeria will change when Nigerians change the questions they ask politicians.
Not:
Where is he from?
But:
What has he built?
Not:
Which church does he attend?
But:
Does he understand economics?
Not:
Which mosque does he worship in?
But:
Can he deliver electricity?
Not:
Is it our turn?
But:
CAN THIS PERSON DO THE JOB?
That should become the Nigerian political revolution.
THE PRESIDENCY IS NOT FOR SALE
Nigeria does not merely need another President.
Nigeria needs national rescue.
We need leadership capable of converting resources into production; production into employment; employment into prosperity; and prosperity into national power.
Anyone seeking election or re election who cannot demonstrate a credible pathway towards those objectives should not expect Nigerians to reward failure simply because another election has arrived.
A President does not have to solve every Nigerian problem within one term.
But he must demonstrate unmistakably that Nigeria is moving towards solving them.
The presidency is not a ceremonial throne.
It is not compensation for political longevity.
It is not an entitlement.
It is not an ethnic trophy.
It is not a religious trophy.
It is not a retirement package.
It is not the private inheritance of the Nigerian political class.
And it must never again be treated as something that can simply be purchased with political machinery, patronage and money.
THE PRESIDENCY OF THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF NIGERIA IS NOT FOR SALE.
It belongs temporarily to whoever Nigerians entrust with the responsibility of transforming the extraordinary wealth beneath our feet and the extraordinary talent inside our people into a decent life for the population.
So as Nigeria approaches another presidential election, perhaps there is only one question that ultimately matters.
Not:
WHO CAN WIN?
But:
WHO ACTUALLY KNOWS WHAT TO DO WITH NIGERIA?
Who can walk into Washington without trembling?
Who can negotiate in London without feeling inferior?
Who can engage Beijing without mortgaging the next generation?
Who can confront multinational corporations without driving away legitimate investment?
Who can confront Nigeria’s own oligarchs without becoming captured by them?
Who understands oil?
Who understands gas?
Who understands electricity?
Who understands agriculture?
Who understands industrialisation?
Who understands technology?
Who understands international finance?
Who understands geopolitics?
Who understands that Nigeria’s greatest resource is ultimately not what lies beneath the ground but the people walking upon it?
That is the individual Nigerians should be looking for.
Not another messiah.
Not another slogan.
Not another political dynasty.
Not another ethnic champion.
Not another candidate whose principal qualification is that it is supposedly his turn.
A competent national manager.
A courageous negotiator.
A builder.
A patriot with economic intelligence.
And, when Nigerian interests require it, a stubborn character capable of looking the most powerful people in the world directly in the eye and saying:
YOU KNOW WHAT YOU WANT FROM NIGERIA.
WE KNOW WHAT WE WANT FOR NIGERIA.
NOW LET US NEGOTIATE.
That is sovereignty.
That is leadership.
And after more than six decades of extraordinary resources existing alongside extraordinary poverty, that is the minimum Nigeria should demand from anyone asking to become, or remain, President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.
By Duruebube Chimazuru “Oblong” Nnadi-Oforgu
For
OBLONG MEDIA GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
Leadership. Accountability. National Interest.
http://www.oblongmedia.net
oblongmedialtd@gmail.com
08072313955
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